2014-04-02 16:27:01 - Mexico Retail Report Q1 2014 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
In 2014, we believe that declining unemployment, which we forecast to fall from 5.2% in August to 4.2% by the end of next year, combined with an overall improvement in economic activity, as the US economy also picks up, will lead to stronger household spending in Mexico.
We maintain our Mexico real GDP growth forecast of 2.3% in 2013 and 3.5% in 2014, compared to 3.8% in 2012. Real private consumption has held up relatively well despite the weakening of the overall economy in H113, and we expect household spending to pick up over the coming months. In addition, we believe President Enrique PeÃ±a Nieto´s reforms will attract significant investment over the coming years.
We believe that while the recent string of
hurricanes poses a downside risk for growth in Q313, the Mexican economy will sustain a broad recovery through the end of the year, after a weak performance in H113, and accelerate at a robust pace in 2014. The main drivers of growth over the coming years will be household spending, which has held up relatively well this year despite unfavourable economic conditions, and stronger exports, driven by greater demand from a strengthening US consumer.
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