2013-10-08 13:45:31 - Fast Market Research recommends "Mexico Shipping Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
We remain optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook on the back of a booming manufacturing sector, an increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics. As a result we retain a cautious optimism towards the country's shipping sector. That said, we believe Mexico's ability to reverse its severe macroeconomic imbalances and generate the robust growth necessary to propel it to 'developed market' status still hinges on the passage of substantive energy sector reform. As we continue to expect the economy will slow in 2013 on the back of moderating external demand, with the manufacturing sector struggling to gain traction, and potential for a weaker peso to weigh on consumer spending, we have revised down our real GDP growth forecast from 3.6%
to 2.3% for 2013
Headline Industry Data
* Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2013 is estimated to hit 2.1%, to reach 27.7mn tonnes.
* Port of Veracruz total tonnage growth in 2013 is estimated to hit 1.1%, to reach 21.2mn tonnes.
* Mexico trade real growth forecast at 3.3% in 2013.
Full Report Details at
Key Trends And Developments
Mexican Cargo Volumes To Rise By 80%
The volume of cargo to pass through Mexico's ports is expected to increase by 80% by the end of 2018, reports the Journal of Commerce. The volume is predicted to total 508mn tonnes a year by the end of the current Mexican government's term. At present, some 282mn tonnes pass through the country's ports every year.
Government Earmarks US$4.34bn For Port Projects
The Mexican government has allocated US$4.34bn for several projects in the country's port sector. The proposed projects entail constructing two new ports, 12 specialised terminals and a cruise ship terminal.
Zim Looks To Mexico And Central America ETR
BMI recognises the potential support that emerging trade routes (ETRs) would give to the overtonnaged fleet as the sector struggled on the traditional big money routes of Asia-Europe and the transpacific. The latest shipping company to increase its exposure to one such route is Israeli firm Zim, with its new West Coast Central America service.
Risks To Outlook
The Mexican economy remains highly dependent on that of the US. Downside risk to throughput at Mexican ports is presented in the form of sluggish US consumer sentiment. With 80% of exports still destined for the US market, growth is clearly dependent on the US economy not falling back into recession. Upside risk is presented by the Mexican government's to make an investment of US$783.1mn in the country's maritime sector in a bid to develop and construct new infrastructure at six ports. BMI notes this investment is badly needed; Mexican ports suffer from an ongoing infrastructure deficit.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- BMI Industry View
- Shipping SWOT Analysis
- Business Environment
- Port Of Manzanillo
- Port Of Veracruz
- Table: Major Port Data, 2010-2017
- Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
- Table: Key Trade Indicators , 2010-2017
- Table: Mexico's Main Import Partners, 2004-2011 (US$mn)
- Table: Mexico's Main Export Partners, 2004-2011 (US$mn)
- Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
- Industry Trends And Developments
Shipping - Global Industry View
- Box Supply: Overcapacity Remains, But ETRs Offer Hope
- Table: Q213 Container Vessel Deliveries
- Table: Container Line Mega Vessel Newbuild Plans
- Table: Q213 New Container Ship Orders
- Box Rates: Tough 2013, ETRs Remain The Ones To Watch
- Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Box Demand: Static Outlook Continues, But 2014 Looks Brighter
Global Company Strategy
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company
- CMA CGM
- Evergreen Line
- COSCO Container Lines Company
- Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Table: Mexico - GDP Contribution To Growth
- Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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