2012-11-03 17:46:29 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Mexico Shipping Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI remains cautiously optimistic on the Mexican port sector. Although we highlight that there are clouds on the horizon in the form of sluggish US demand and slow domestic consumer demand, positive throughput data for the first half of the year at Mexico's ports appear to support a strong growth throughput forecast
Headline Industry Data
* Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2012 is estimated to hit 3.7%, with average annual growth of 4.9% during our forecast period to 2016.
* Port of Manzanillo box throughput growth in 2012 is forecast at 9.3%, and to average 7.3% to 2016.
* Port of Veracruz total tonnage growth in 2012 is estimated to hit 7.7%, with average annual growth of 4.6% during
our forecast period.
Full Report Details at
Key Trends And Developments
APMT Signs On Lazaro Cardenas
BMI believes that the new container terminal to be opened at the Mexican port of Lazaro Cardenas will bring competition to the US West Coast ports of LA and Long Beach, which are both already concerned over potential loss of traffic once the Panama Canal expansion is completed. We also believe that the new facility will see the proportion of containerised tonnage at the port increase further.
Getting More Efficient
BMI believes that the significant increase in operational efficiency at Mexico's Port of Progreso is a positive sign for the country's ports, which will require high levels of efficiency given the pressures placed upon them by Mexico's growth prospects.
Shipping Companies Reorganise Far East-Mexico-WCSA Service
Five shipping companies in June announced plans to reorganise their jointly-operated Far East-Mexico- WCSA service. CCNI, China Shipping, Hamburg Sud, Hanjin and Hyundai will increase the capacity of the service in order to meet increased demand for fruit exports from the Southern hemisphere.
Risks To Outlook
On the downside, our outlook for Mexican consumers remains sluggish. Consumer confidence surveys suggest that the Mexican consumer remains wary. Over the long term, we believe Mexican consumer demand will continue to be undermined by the lack of competitiveness in key sectors, lack of fiscal reform and overdependence on the US economic cycle.
Further downside risk to throughput at Mexican ports is presented in the form of sluggish US consumer sentiment. With 80% of exports still destined for the US market, growth is clearly dependent on the US economy not falling back into recession.
Report Table of Contents:
- Mexico Shipping SWOT
- Mexico Political SWOT
- Mexico Economic SWOT
- Mexico Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview - Container Shipping
- More Positive Box Outlook In H212
- Box Supply Demand Imbalance Worsens
- Concerted Rate Push Must Continue
- Bunker Price Still A Worry
- 2013: A Year Of Mega Realisation
- Containerisation Revolution Hits Dry Bulk
Global Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
- Stockpiling: A Threat To Dry Bulk Shipping
- Overcapacity A Long Term Problem
- Bankruptcies To Continue
- Vale's Forced Diversification Hedges Against China Slowdown
- Protectionism Trend Takes Off
Global Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
- Executive Summary: Unconventional Sectors To Outshine Traditional Crude
- Dirty Tanker Index To Remain Depressed
- Bunker Prices Down, But So Are Rates
- Table: BMI's Bunker Fuel Forecasts, 2010-2016 ($/Bbl)
- Iran Sanctions Continue To Affect Crude Shipping
- Saudi Arabian Merger Bad News For Other Operators
- Table: Biggest Operators Of VLCCs & ULCCs
- Bullish On Golar LNG Prospects
- Tight Market Creates Boom Times For Rig Sector
Industry Trends And Developments
Mexico Container Shipping Market Overview
- Port of Manzanillo
- Port of Veracruz
- Table: Major Port Data, 2009-2016
- Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016
- Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
- Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
- Evergreen Line
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container)
- Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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