2014-02-19 08:27:01 - Mozambique Business Forecast Report Q3 2013 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com
We are forecasting 2013 real GDP growth at 7.1% year-on-year (yo- y), lower than the 7.4% y-o-y achieved in 2012. The main reason for the slowdown is our expectation that inflation will accelerate and coal exports will underperform as a result of floods which hit south and central Mozambique early in the year. From 2014, we expect growth to gather momentum towards a peak of 15.9% y-o-y in 2020, when gas production is expected to commence.
Inflation in Mozambique will continue to rise owing to a combination of base effects, increasing money supply growth and the effects of floods in early 2013. Appreciation of the metical against the South African rand over the last 12 months will temper inflationary pressures to
some extent given that South Africa is Mozambique´s main source of imports. Given our views on inflation, we believe the monetary authorities will hold the policy rate at 9.50% for the remainder of 2013.
Lower aluminium prices and disruption to coal exports has led to a deterioration in Mozambique´s external profile over recent months.
However, a recovery in coal and strong donor support as well as foreign direct investment inflows will preclude the situation from escalating into a balance of payments crisis.
Major Forecast Changes
Flooding in early 2013 has had less of an impact on agricultural production than we initially anticipated and we have therefore revised up our 2013 growth forecast to 7.1%, from 6.7% previously.
Our Oil & Gas team has adjusted its expectations for the onset of gas production, which is now foreseen in 2020 (as opposed to 2018 previously). We have revised our GDP growth and fiscal and external account projections to reflect this.
Key Risks To Outlook
As the recent floods have shown, Mozambique is vulnerable to adverse weather. Over the years ahead the weather, specifically too much or too little rain, will continue to pose a risk to the agriculture-based economy.
A failure to address deficient infrastructure is the most pressing risk to our upbeat view on the Mozambican economy. Transport infrastructure in particular is currently inadequate to get Mozambique´s natural riches to international markets. Failure to address this would negatively impact our expectation that exports will be a major driver of growth over the coming years.The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.
Click for report details: www.companiesandmarkets.com/Market/All-Sectors/Country-Guide/Moz ..
Browse all All Sectors Country Guide Reports www.companiesandmarkets.com/Market/All-Sectors/Country-Guide?aCo ..
Browse all All Sectors Company Profile Reports www.companiesandmarkets.com/Market/All-Sectors/Company-Profile?a ..
Browse all Latest Country Guide Reports www.companiesandmarkets.com/Market/All/Country-Guide?aCode=f3fb3 ..
Companiesandmarkets.com is a leading online business information aggregator with over 300,000 market reports and company profiles available to our clients. Our extensive range of reports are sourced from the leading publishers of business information and provide clients with the widest range of information available. In terms of company profiles, Companiesandmarkets.comâs online database allows clients access to market and corporate information to over 100,000 different companies. We provide clients with a fully indexed database of information where clients can find specific market reports on their niche industry sectors of interest.