2012-11-14 20:52:57 - Namibia Business Forecast Report Q3 2012 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com
We expect growth to be relatively robust, at 4.6% in 2012 and 5.1% in 2013. Even as global headwinds constrain export revenues, we believe that investment and government expenditures â boosted by the Targeted Intervention Programme for Employment and Economic Growth â will help to pick up the slack. Broad stability, both from an economic and political perspective, will persist over the coming months and years.
Major Forecast Changes
Based on newly available data, including revised historical figures, and given the deteriorating outlook for the global economy, we have downgraded our current account forecasts for 2012 and now expect a deficit of 1.7% of GDP, compared with previous expectations for a surplus of 0.1%.
Risks To Outlook
Namibia´s small, open economy is highly
exposed to events on the world stage. While we have incorporated the ongoing global malaise into our economic forecasts, if the situation abroad significantly deteriorates (or, conversely, improves) more than we expect, we would have to adjust our forecasts accordingly. Much of the economy remains closely tied to agriculture, and weather poses substantial risks. For example, flooding in 2011 adversely affected productivity and incomes.
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