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Namibia Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

Namibia Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - new country guide report published

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2013-01-01 01:23:53 - Namibia Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - a new country guide report on

The global macroeconomic environment, particularly the problems in the eurozone and the slowdown in China, will weigh heavily on the Namibian economy. Nevertheless, the country is expected to grow at 4.0-5.0% annually over the coming years. Namibia´s long-held reputation for political stability and its favourable business environment will continue to help it attract investment, helping it to better weather the tough times ahead.

Major Forecast Changes

We have downgraded our expectations for Namibian growth in 2012 from 4.6% to 4.3%, and in 2013 from 5.1% to 4.8%. Based on the latest data made available by the Bank of Namibia (BoN) and our belief that export revenue will be hit hard by the global economy, we expect the current account deficit to



widen to 2.7% of GDP in 2012 and 3.8% in 2013, a downward revision from our previous projections of shortfalls of 0.6% and 1.0% respectively.

Key Risks To Outlook

Namibia´s small, open economy is highly exposed to events on the world stage. While we have incorporated the ongoing global malaise into our economic forecasts, if the situation abroad significantly deteriorates (or improves) more than we anticipate, we would have to adjust our forecasts accordingly. Much of the economy remains closely tied to agriculture, so the weather poses substantial risks, as seen in 2011 when flooding adversely affected productivity and incomes.

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Mike King
Phone: London: +44 (0) 203 086 8600

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