2013-01-15 13:49:16 - Namibia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com
We expect that the government´s spending push will help support headline growth, although the budget deficit will remain wide as a result.
Difficulties in the eurozone, China, the US, and other major markets will hamper Namibia´s export-oriented economy, and the current account deficit is expected to rise.
We see the recent reshuffling of the cabinet by President Hifikepunye Pohamba as the groundwork for the eventual transition following the end of his presidency in 2014, after which we expect broad policy continuity.
Major Forecast Changes
We have downgraded our expectations for Namibian growth in 2012 from 4.3% to an estimated 4.1%, with anticipated growth for 2013 revised down from 4.8% to 4.6%, due to continued sluggishness in the global economy.
Key Risks To Outlook
Namibia´s small, open
economy is highly exposed to events on the world stage. While we have incorporated the ongoing global malaise into our economic forecasts, if the situation abroad deteriorates (or, conversely, improves) more than we anticipate, we would have to again adjust our forecasts accordingly.
Much of the economy remains closely tied to agriculture, and weather poses substantial risks, as seen in 2011 when flooding adversely affected productivity and incomes.
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