2013-10-25 20:57:06 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Netherlands Business Forecast Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
The Dutch economy will slide further into recession in the coming quarters, but will likely see a return to positive growth in 2014.
With unemployment rising and the fiscal deficit widening, the government will continue to suffer in the polls.
Major Forecast Changes
There are no major forecast changes this quarter.
Key Risks To Outlook
Should the eurozone sovereign debt crisis take a turn for the worse in the coming quarters, we would expect a more pronounced contraction in GDP than currently expected.
Report Table of Contents:
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risk To Outlook
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Clouding Case For More Austerity
- The deepening economic recession in the Netherlands is making it increasingly difficult for the government to persevere with fiscal austerity. However, given the government's role in promoting public finance reform across the eurozone, the coalition is unlikely to change course for the time being and will respond to missed fiscal targets with further budget savings. A return to positive economic growth in 2014 as we expect would provide some cover for the government's austerity agenda, but if the recession deepens then we would warn of potential escalation in social tensions as has been seen elsewhere in Europe in recent years.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Few Signs Of A Turnaround Yet
- The Dutch economy is still stuck in the mire with few signs yet of a turnaround in activity, suggesting that the Netherlands could be lagging the wider eurozone. We still expect to see a return to positive economic growth in 2014, predicated in part on a recovery in international trade, but we warn that the surge in unemployment and fall in hous e prices remain key sources of stress in the economy.
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Business Environment
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
Chapter 4: Key Sectors
TABLE: PRESCRIPTION DRUG SALES
TABLE: PATENTED DRUG SALES
TABLE: GENERIC DRUG SALES
TABLE: OTC MEDICINE SALES
TABLE: TELECOMS SECTOR - FIXED LINE
TABLE: TELECOMS SECTOR - INTERNET
TABLE: TELECOMS SECTOR - ARPU (EUR)
TABLE: TELECOMS SECTOR - MOBILE
Other Key Sectors
TABLE: FOOD & DRINK SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: AUTOS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: FREIGHT KEY INDICATORS
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
Lowering EM Growth Forecasts
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/694765_netherlands_business_forecast_report_ ..
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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