2012-09-06 08:03:10 - Netherlands Telecommunications Report Q1 2012 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com

BMIs Q112 update to the Netherlands Telecoms Report contains extended forecasts through to 2016 for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband subscriber markets, as well as for mobile monthly blended ARPU.
The report on the Netherlands telecommunications market provides a comprehensive overview of the latest trends and the developments that have occurred within the countrys mobile, fixed-line telephony, and internet sectors. This quarter sees only minor changes to our forecasts, with our assumptions about the underlying trends impacting the market over the medium term unchanged. We have, however, made minor changes on the basis of regulatory data that cover the period to the end of June 2011, as well as operator data for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband markets for the

 

 

period to the end of September 2011. Our new forecast for the mobile market incorporates the latest subscriber data, published by the countrys three largest operators, KPN, Vodafone and T-Mobile, for Q311. Our new wireline forecasts incorporate data from OPTA, and from leading wireline operators such as KPN, UPC and Zesko Holding (Ziggo), T-Mobile and Tele2.

Strong growth in the mobile market continued in Q311, although performance dipped from the 2.2% growth in Q211 to 1.4% q-o-q growth, taking penetration to over 120% at the end of September 2011. In addition to achieving a fast rate of growth, the Netherlands market has seen a high quality of subscriber, with 7.2% y-o-y growth in postpaid subscriptions to Q311, compared to 1.4% y-o-y growth in prepaid subscriptions. For 2011 as a whole, we now predict full-year growth of just over 5.8%.

The key recent developments in the mobile sector were the actual and potential changes to the dynamics of competition. On one hand, led by KPN, mobile operators moved away from unlimited data tariffs and raised prices for mobile services in the wake of the passing of strict net neutrality legislation. The market will also be impacted by the September 2011 announcement that the Dutch government was looking to reserve one-third of new wireless spectrum for new market entrants. The government plans to auction off a number of blocks of spectrum in 2012, including frequencies in the 800MHz band suitable for 4G mobile data services. The states move to ring fence a significant portion of the spectrum on offer is welcomed by the likes of Tele2 and local cable broadband operators – Ziggo and Liberty Global Incs UPC – but has reportedly angered Dutch incumbent operator KPN, which is said to be considering a legal challenge against the governments plan.

Tele2 Netherlands has already expressed an interest in bidding for 800MHz spectrum, which it sees as a way of providing 4G services based on LTE services, in competition against the established mobile network operators.
The most recent data from the regulator OPTA show that the Dutch broadband market had almost 6.4mn fixed connections at the end of June 2011 with a further 768,000 dedicated mobile broadband subscriptions, slightly lower than we had expected in our previous forecast. By the end of 2011, BMI now expects the Netherlands to have almost 7.3mn broadband connections, reflecting full-year growth of 3.4%, a minor downgrade from our earlier forecast, as mobile broadband growth failed to substitute for plateauing growth in fixed subscriptions as penetration approached 40%.

The Netherlands maintained third position in BMIs latest set of Risk/Reward Ratings for Western Europe, and saw its score rise, embedding its position and its lead over fourth place. However, due to the smaller size of its market, it continues to trail regional leaders the UK and France. This quarter sees the countrys Telecoms Rating increase from 67 to 68.1, an increase that is largely due to a stronger performance in the Industry Rewards category. The Netherlands continues to score above the regional average in all the categories evaluated by BMI. The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.

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