2013-01-08 14:12:30 - Fast Market Research recommends "Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

BMI View: Key refinery operator Lukoil has made peace with the Bulgarian authorities and appears committed to renewed downstream oil investment as well as showing interest in upstream activities. Meanwhile, Bulgaria's upstream prospects rest on early and significant success at Black Sea drilling operations. It had been thought that shale gas prospects could stimulate long-term supply, but the ban on fraccing means there is little chance of progress, frustrating IOC partners involved in early deals.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Bulgaria's oil and gas sector are:

?? On January 18 2012, the Bulgarian Parliament enacted legislation to ban fracture stimulation (fraccing) following widespread protests against the controversial extraction procedure. It then suspended a shale gas exploration permit it had

earlier granted to US-based oil major Chevron, in spite of the country's speculated 1,000bn cubic metres (bcm) of shale gas potential. In June 2012, the government partly lifted the moratorium, but only for conventional gas exploration. ?? Bulgarian energy minister Delyan Dobrev announced in July 2012 that French oil major Total has been awarded the highly prospective Khan Asparuh block in the Black Sea. It beat rivals ExxonMobil and Melrose Resources to the offshore block, which preliminary studies show could hold up to 500bcm of gas. Total will partner Spain's Repsol and Austria's OMV to explore the block. Dobrev hopes that Khan Asparuh could yield an even larger discovery than the one made in Romania's Neptun block in the Black Sea earlier in February 2012 by ExxonMobil and Petrom. ?? Bulgarian gas consumption is rising well ahead of domestic supply. Although gas output may reach 1.2bcm by 2014/15, net imports by 2016 could reach 2.2bcm, rising further to a possible 3.3bcm by 2021. In November 2009, Bulgaria and Azerbaijan signed a memorandum under which Bulgaria plans to import about 1bcm of natural gas from the Central Asian country from 2014. ?? Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov has said he expects the construction of the Nabucco pipeline to begin on January 10 2013. The Nabucco West project comprises six countries, and Bulgarian gas company Bulgargaz is among six companies, each with a 16.67% stake, that are constructing the pipeline. ?? Oil demand growth, already modest before the current economic downturn, will make little progress until GDP growth accelerates, which suggests consumption may reach just 124,660 barrels per day (b/d) by 2016 and 136,200b/d by 2021. Imports are expected to grow in line with consumption, as exploration efforts by small independent oil companies are likely to deliver increased domestic crude volumes. ?? A turnkey project-implementation contract was signed in Sofia during January 2012 for a heavyresidue hydrocracking complex to be built at the Lukoil Neftochim Burgas refinery. Implementation will allow it to increase the output of Euro-5 diesel fuel by 1.2mn tonnes per annum (tpa) and also to end production of high-sulphur fuel oil. Commissioning of the new complex is expected in January 2015. Bulgarian units of Lukoil have not abused their dominant market positions, the country's anti-monopoly commission concluded in July 2012 after an investigation lasting almost a year.


Full Report Details at
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Bulgaria is set to import 110,000-122,000b/d of crude annually over the next five years, implying costs of around US$4.07bn in 2013, rising slightly to US$4.13bn by 2016. Gas imports of 2.0-2.3bcm per annum during the forecast period mean total petroleum costs will be US$5.10bn by 2016, rising to US$5.90bn by 2021. At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.10/bbl, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
- Bulgaria Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Table: Bulgaria Proven Oil & Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Bulgaria Proven Oil & Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data - Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Bulgaria Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Bulgaria Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Bulgaria Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Bulgaria Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021
- LNG
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Table: Bulgaria Refining Production and Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Bulgaria Refining Production and Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Country Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
- Bulgaria Upstream Rating - Overview
- Bulgaria Upstream Rating - Rewards
- Bulgaria Upstream Rating - Risks
- Bulgaria Downstream Rating - Overview
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
- Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Bulgaria Energy Market Overview
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- Licensing Rounds
- International Energy Relations
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Bulgaria
- Service Stations
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- Oil Pipelines
- LNG Terminals
- Gas Storage Facilities
- Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players Bulgarian Oil And Gas Sector
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profiles
- Lukoil Neftekhim
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Petrol
- OMV Bulgaria
- Shell Bulgaria
- EKO Bulgaria
- Melrose Resources (Petroceltic)
- Bulgargaz - Summary
- Total - Summary

Full Table of Contents is available at:
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