2012-09-02 16:23:05 - New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Colombia Food & Drink Report Q4 2012"

Colombia's economic backdrop over the last 12 months has seen strong credit growth and lower unemployment driving consumption. However, we believe private consumption may have peaked in H211, and growth is now moderating owing to a slowdown in credit growth. That said, we still forecast the Colombian economy will perform strongly at a 4.7% real GDP growth rate this year.

Indeed, the major accelerator for Colombian real GDP growth will continue to be private consumption; we expect this to continue over the next few years, boosted by strong credit expansion and low unemployment. In addition, Colombia's large proportion of low-income consumers means the country has one of the lowest per-capita food consumption rates within the region, leaving much room for growth.


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Headline Industry Data (in local currency):

* 2012 per capita food consumption = +13%; forecast to 2016 = +38.1%.
* 2012 alcoholic drink sales = +6%; forecast to 2016 = +20.3%.
* 2012 soft drink sales = +8.1%; forecast to 2016 = +27.4%.
* 2012 mass grocery retail sales = +15.5%; forecast to 2016 = +47.7%.

Key Company Trends

Colombia's Coffee Harvest Could Disappoint: After an optimistic coffee industry forecast, UK investment bank Barclays Capital has recently cautioned that the 2012 Colombian coffee harvest may still drop to its lowest for over 30 years, according to reports in Agrimoney. A year-on-year (y-o-y) 11% rise in April 2012 generated the Fedacafe estimate, but lack of sunlight is still stunting flowering. Four years of heavy rainfall, plus delays in fruiting due to replanting, caused a three-decade low of 7.8mn bags in 2011.

Walmart May Yet Enter Colombia: A recent report by Bloomberg has suggested that Walmart's attempts to acquire Carrefour's assets in Latin America have slowed due to the French retailer devoting its resources to turning around its ailing European operation. Carrefour's portfolio of stores in markets such as Brazil and Colombia must surely be at the heart of any longer-term plan, and indeed, the recent rumours that the firm is close to sealing the acquisition of a supermarket chain in Argentina suggest that this is now recognised by the firm, and means that a sale to Walmart would be both unwise, and unlikely. With Walmart's interest in Colombia unlikely to be quelled, the firm could instead turn its attention to the clutch of local retailers operating in the market.

Key Risks To Outlook

Potential Impact Of External Slowdown: A further deterioration in global growth could place downward pressure on energy prices, dampening demand for Colombian exports and reducing foreign direct investment.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Colombia Food Industry SWOT
- Colombia Drink Industry SWOT
- Colombia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
- BMI's Core Global Industry Views
- Table: Core Views
- Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Latin America Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q412 (out of 10)
- Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q412
- Colombia Risk/Reward Ratings
Macroeconomic Section
- Table: Colombia - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
- Latin America Sector Outlook
- Bullish Outlook For Colombian Food And Drink
- Table: Latin America Food & Drink Outlook
- Table: Company Financials
- Latin America Sector Outlook
- Brewing Will Continue To Consolidate Around Heineken, SABMiller, ABI
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Outlook
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Colombia Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Confectionery
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Canned Food/Prepared Food
- Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Jams And Jellies
- Table: Pasta
- Table: Dairy
- Table: Meat
- Table: Fish
- Drink
- Hot Drinks
- Table: Hot Drink Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Alcoholic Drinks
- Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Soft Drinks
- Table: Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Colombia Mass Grocery Retail - Value Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, %
- Trade
- Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts
Food
- Key Company Trends And Developments
- Nutresa Modernises and Expands
- Aid For Banana Sector
- Dairy Investment Will Trigger Growth In Remote Areas
- International Expansion With Focus On The US
- Growth In Added-Value Products
- Trade Affected By Venezuelan Relations
- Market Overview
- Confectionery
- Dairy
- Meat
- Seafood
Drink
- Key Company Trends And Developments
- Colombia's Coffee Harvest May Disappoint
- SABmiller Raises Volume Forecasts At Expense Of Price Growth
- Brewing Will Continue To Consolidate Around Heineken, SABMiller, ABI
- FEMSA Investing In Colombia
- Opportunities For Coffee
- Market Overview
- Hot Drinks
- Soft Drinks And Bottled Water
- Alcoholic Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
- Key Company Trends And Developments
- Exito Forges Ahead
- Carrefour's LatAm Business Tempting Proposition for Walmart
- Ripley To Open First Colombian Outlet
- J. Martins To Launch In Colombia With Biedronka Discount Model
- Exito Regional Profile Boosted
- Colombian Convenience Sector To Become Keenly Contested Battleground
Market Overview
- Table: Structure Of Colombia's MGR Market - Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2010
- Table: Structure Of Colombia's MGR Market - Value Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (US$bn)
- Table: Structure Of Colombia's MGR Market - Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (COPbn)
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