2013-12-27 10:05:59 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Colombia Petrochemicals Report 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
The Colombian government is currently in the middle of a refinery expansion programme, hoping to turn a small oil products import requirement into an equally small export flow. BMI's latest Colombia Petrochemicals Report suggests this expansion could open up opportunities for increasing naphtha feedstock availability for the downstream petrochemicals industry.
The Colombian petrochemicals industry saw a decline in rubber and plastics output in 2013. While there was a definite uptrend in chemicals going into H213, both plastics and rubber were expected to perform poorly for the whole of the year. The poor output performance of petrochemicals industries in 2013 came amid deteriorating market conditions. The decline was related to weakening household spending over the period with average retail sales growth.
- www.fastmr.com/prod/754506_colombia_petrochemicals_report_2014.a ..
In 2013, Colombia's petrochemicals facilities included capacities of 120,000tpa ethylene, 45,000tpa benzene, 20,000tpa toluene, 35,000tpa xylenes, 45,000tpa PET, 60,000tpa LDPE, 103,000tpa PS, 400,000tpa PVC, 500,000tpa PP, 115,000tpa ammonia and 185,000tpa urea. These capacities are unlikely to change over the next five years. Ecopetrol has, in the past, proposed a new cracker with associated PE and PP near Cartagena, but no progress has been made.
BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
* BMI believes that the Colombian market will recover from 2014 with improving consumer and business confidence pointing to stronger household spending and industrial production. This will, in turn, support growth in petrochemicals-consuming sectors, helping to revive chemical, rubber and plastics output.
* BMI does not believe that any further petrochemicals capacity expansion is viable until the completion of the expansion of the refineries at Barrancabermeja and Cartagena, which is due in 2014 or 2015. Ecopetrol's Bolivar refinery in Cartagena, the country's second biggest facility, will be upgraded over the course of 2014.
* In BMI's Americas Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings, Colombia is in seventh place with its score increasing 0.6 points since 2013 to 43.2 points due to an improvement in its Country Risk score. Colombia's petrochemicals industry is well integrated with suppliers and local market conditions are improving, following a downturn in H113. Growth in refining capacities offer the opportunity for further growth based on increased naphtha feedstock potential.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Table: Colombia's Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 ('000tpa)
- Economic Analysis
- Table: Colombia - Gdp By Expenditure, Real Growth %
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
- Divergence: Large Markets Take The Lead
- Table: Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
- Colombia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Colombia's Petrochemicals Facilities
Industry Trends And Developments
- Empresa Colombiana de Petroleos (Ecopetrol)
- Polipropileno del Caribe (Propilco)
- Americas Overview
- Table: Planned PE projects in North America, 2014-2019
- Latin American Supply Lags Behind Demand
- Naptha worries
Global Industry Overview
- A Stable 2013, Leading to Growth in 2014?
- Table: Top 10 ethylene producers, 2013
- Long-term growth
- Shale: The Future of Feedstock?
- Threats to growth
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Crude Price Forecasts
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
- Variance Across Product Markets
- Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
- Weak Demand Persists
- Risks To Outlook
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl
- Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
- Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand
- Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement
- Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement
- Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
- Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
- Demographic Outlook
- Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
- Industry Forecast Methodology
- Risk Reward Rating Methodology
- Table: Petrochemicals Risk Reward Rating Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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