2013-10-26 20:29:52 - Fast Market Research recommends "Czech Republic Real Estate Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
The German chemicals market, which accounts for a quarter of EU sales, will be pivotal to the growth of overall European chemicals production. Hence, the slowdown in domestic demand will inevitably lead to a reduction in imports, meaning that European producers cannot bank on German demand to compensate for weaknesses elsewhere in the EU market. Many will fail to match the competitiveness of the country's diverse and highly integrated petrochemicals industry. Meanwhile, key growth drivers in the German industry will be in high-end specification plastics and speciality chemicals, rather than the basic chemicals and polymers traded by producers in the Gulf region. This should, in due course, spur investment in the expansion of existing capacity and increase research and development,
with a focus on German operations.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/694799_czech_republic_real_estate_report_q4_ ..
The German chemical industry experienced stagnation in production and sales in H113. Growth in exports, particularly to other European markets, was offset by weakening domestic sales. Although production is 3% below the pre-crisis level of 2007, the industry is performing better than its competitors in Europe. With stagnating production volumes and stable prices, total sales in the German chemical industry amounted to EUR90.8bn. Domestic business dropped by 1.0% to EUR35bn, because industrial customers ordered fewer chemicals. Foreign sales improved by 0.5% to EUR55.8bn.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
* The performance of the German market is disappointing and has prompted a downward revision in BMI's forecast for domestic sales growth from 2.0% to 1.5%. Accordingly, our petrochemicals output growth forecast has also been altered from 1.5% to 1.0%. Slower growth means that it could take two years for the industry to recover from the 3.0% decline in output reported for 2012, when the German petrochemicals industry experienced zero growth in domestic sales and the effects of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
* Industrial growth will shrink by 3.0% in 2013 before growing 2.5% in 2014, which will moderate domestic chemicals consumption growth. Crucially, automotive output is forecast to fall 3.4% and 1.7% in 2013 and 2014, respectively, which will have a negative impact on consumption of engineering plastics.
* In July 2013, Germany's Ethylene Pipeline South (EPS), the 370km-long link connecting crackers at Munchsmunster and Burghausen to the south-western ARG network at Ludwigshafen, in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate, was commissioned. The project will connect BASF's petrochemicals hub in Ludwigshafen with chemical sites in Bavaria and should boost downstream production margins and, in turn, competitiveness.
* Germany scores 81.8 points and is placed first in BMI's European petrochemicals ratings, unchanged since the previous quarter, as a result of market stabilisation and improved export performance which has improved its market risk score. This puts it 7.9 points ahead of the Netherlands.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Industry Forecast
- Table: Germany's Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated)
- Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Macro Backdrop
- Table: Germany - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Germany Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
- European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
- Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
- Industry Trends And Developments
- BASF Aktiengesellschaft (BASF)
- Table: BASF Annual Results (EURmn)
- BP Refining And Petrochemicals GmbH
- Table: BP Financial Results
- Europe Overview
- Short-Term Outlook: Competitiveness And Pricing
- Looking Beyond Europe
- Shale Gas Boom To Change European Petrochemicals Outlook?
Global Industry Overview
- Global Industry Overview
- Short-term outlook: Prices Stabilising & Margins Improving
- Long-term growth
- Shale: The Future of Feedstock?
- Global Oil Product Price Outlook
- Crude Price Forecasts
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
- Product Prices Move Back Up But No Spikes Expected
- Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
- Weak Demand Persists
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl
- Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
- Naphtha: Gas Renaissance Hits Demand
- Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement
- Jet Fuel: Slump Restricts Upward Movement
- Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
- Bunker Fuels: No Rest To Downward Movement In Sight
- Demographic Outlook
- Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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