2013-02-24 15:19:40 - New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "Czech Republic Retail Report Q1 2013"

The Czech Republic Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concern about the impact on the country's economic outlook of the government's sustained fiscal austerity drive.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Czech retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the ongoing eurozone sovereign debt crisis on the Czech consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Czech retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Czech per capita consumer spending is forecast

to increase by a modest 10% between 2013 and 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 33%. The country comes second (out of 10) in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, and notably outperforms for Risk. Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with BMI forecasting sales to expand by more than 20%, from US$15.34bn in 2013 to US$18.48bn by 2016. Through to 2016, we expect the proportional contribution of supermarkets and hypermarkets to remain dominant, with premiumisation momentum expected to pick up in line with the pre-crisis trend.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/536425_czech_republic_retail_report_q1_2013. ..


In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that the Czech Republic, which joined the EU in May 2004, has a reasonably open economy compared with some neighbouring CEE markets, and some companies from outside the region continue to transfer part of their business to the Czech Republic to reduce costs and take advantage of the domestic market.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* We estimate the Czech economy to have remained in recession in 2012 to the tune of 0.7% before recovering to 0.8% real GDP growth in 2013. The ongoing eurozone sovereign debt crisis will continue to depress domestic activity in the Czech Republic via weaker exports and investment. Meanwhile, the government's sustained fiscal austerity drive will feed through to lower household and government spending.
* BMI estimates private consumption to have fallen by 3.5% in 2012, posing a 1.6-percentagepoint (pp) drag on real GDP. In 2013, while we still forecast a contraction in consumer spending as uncertainty surrounding the future of the eurozone remains high, our forecast for a 0.5% drop in real private consumption will drag on real GDP growth by only 0.2pp.
* Credit growth to households remains relatively lacklustre, coming in at 4.2% y-o-y in July 2012, out of which only 17.5% is consumer credit, versus 70.9% accounting for lending for house purchases. This is evident in real retail sales, which fell by 0.8% y-o-y in August 2012, according to data released by the Czech Statistical Office.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Czech Republic Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Czech Republic Political SWOT
- Czech Republic Economic SWOT
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Outlook
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Czech Republic Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016
- Table: Retail Sales By Segment, 2013f
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Czech Republic - Economic Activity
Regional Retail Outlook
- Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2009-2016
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn, unless stated)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016
- Regional Retail Trends
Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Czech Republic's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
- Czech Republic Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Leading Retailers
- Table: Structure Of The MGR Market By Number Of Outlets, 2004-2011
- Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2011 And 2021 (% of total)
- Table: Structure Of The MGR Market By Value, 2004-2011
- Table: Value Sales Per Outlet, 2011e
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- Czech Republic Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Top Four Czech Electronics Retailers, Revenue 2008-2009 (CZKbn)
- Computers
- Table: PC Sales, 2008-2016
- AV
- Table: AV Sales
- Table: Analogue Verus Digital TV Subscribers
- Mobile Handsets
- Table: Mobile Communications
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Electronics Market
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- Czech Republic Autos Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Passenger Cars 2011
- Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Passenger Cars Jan-Aug
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Czech Autos Production, 2009-2016
- Table: Czech Autos Sales, 2009-2016
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=536425&dt=t

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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

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