2013-02-22 13:53:33 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Germany Agribusiness Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI View: The changing regulatory environment will prove to be a major force in determining the growth trajectory of the German agribusiness sector. The ongoing reforms in the EU Common Agricultural Policy will affect farmers' profitability in the medium term and make their revenues more dependent on market prices. The livestock and dairy industries are expected to be the most affected as environmental and quality standards tighten. We see downside risks to our already-bearish outlook for sugar production as the EU shifts focus towards second-generation biofuel produced from waste instead of food crops. To some extent, this will also dampen our outlook for the grains sector.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/536427_germany_agribusiness_report_q1_2013.a ..
* Corn production growth to 2016/17: 13.0%
to 5.22mn tonnes. Corn yields have been improving significantly in recent years as an emphasis on increased output has led farmers to adopt more productive practices. Biofuels will also be a main driver of crop production over the coming decade.
* Poultry consumption growth to 2017: 6.4% to 1.74mn tonnes. We expect poultry consumption to gain ground as consumers are attracted to the meat's healthier image and lower price.
* Sugar production growth to 2016/17: -2.0% to 4.68mn tonnes. After a more than 6% year-on-year (y-oy) decline in production during 2012/13, sugar output is expected to recover somewhat as the abolition of the sugar production quotas by 2015 encourage farmers to plant more sugar.
* 2013 real GDP growth: 2.0%, up from 0.4% in 2012 and forecast to average just over 2% from 2013 until 2017.
* Consumer price inflation: 2.5% y-o-y in 2013, up from 2.0% in 2012.
In November 2012, Russia imposed temporary restrictions on a number of German meat plants. The move could result in a ban of all meat exports from Germany to Russia should the former not address Russia's concerns over veterinary and sanitary standards. In October, Germany passed regulations with a view towards significantly reducing the use of antibiotics in animal production, online news source Meatsite reported. The regulation calls for the establishment of a new nationwide database for exchange of information between authorities, which will monitor the frequency of treatment with antibiotics in a company and compare it with that of other companies. A key risk for producers is that change in antibioticsuse practices could significantly drive up production costs for producers.
Our view for continued consolidation in the German dairy segment is playing out, with Dutch dairy producer FrieslandCampina announcing plans to cut 15% of its workforce in Germany as it seeks to improve competitiveness amid narrowing profit margins. That said, there are players eyeing other growth opportunities within the segment. Swiss dairy producer Emmi has announced the acquisition of a 24% stake in German organic dairy producer Glaserne Molkerei through its existing organic subsidiary Molkerei Biedermann. According to the firm, the move was designed to allow it to take greater advantage of the growing market for organic products in Germany and across Europe.
The EU is facing its worst corn crop in five seasons as dry conditions in the middle of the continent have forced downward revisions to output estimates. This has led the EU to increase imports to 6.5mn tonnes for 2012/13, according to official estimates, although some sources indicate this figure could reach 12mn tonnes, which would rank as one of the world's highest. We expect EU corn production to remain low by historical standards in 2013/14 as farmers choose to plant other crops. Even with lower supply from the EU, we continue to forecast a surplus on the global corn market in 2012/13.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Agribusiness SWOT
- Business Environment SWOT
- Germany Grains Outlook
- Table: Germany Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Germany Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Germany Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Germany Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Germany Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Germany Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Germany Livestock Outlook
- Table: Germany Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Germany Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Germany Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: New Payment Schemes Under CAP Reforms
- Table: Germany Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Germany Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Germany Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Germany Dairy Outlook
- Table: Germany Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Germany Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Germany Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Germany Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Germany Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Germany Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Germany Sugar Outlook
- Table: Germany Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Germany Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodities Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Strategy
- Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
- Monthly Grains Strategy
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
- Europe Fertiliser Outlook
- Europe GM Outlook
- Europe Machinery Outlook
- Industry Forecast - Food
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables
- Table: Snack Foods
- Table: Pasta
- Table: Dairy
- Table: Meat
- Table: Fish
- Table: Oils And Fats
- Industry Forecast - Drink
- Table: Soft Drinks
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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