2012-07-30 10:08:40 - New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Italy Oil & Gas Report Q3 2012"
BMI View: Aside from the country's well-publicised economic woes, Italy is at a crossroads in terms of energy market development. The public is rejecting state efforts to revive its nuclear strategy, leaving the way clear for gas volumes to rise steadily higher - forcing the import bill to keep pace. Domestic oil and gas volumes are significant but under threat, while Italy's refining system will continue to absorb cash but offer little in the way of returns - as evidenced by Eni's decision to reduce throughput at its Gela complex.
The main trends and developments we highlight in Italy's Oil and Gas sector are:
* Italian oil company Eni announced in April 2012 that it was to implement a temporary and
partial stoppage at its Gela Refinery in Sicily. Gela will continue to refine crude sourced domestically, but will halt the refining of foreign crude. In its press release, Eni attributed this decision to 'a significant contraction in demand for petroleum products and the surplus of refining capacity', which led to a 'collapse' in refining margins. This stoppage will last for 12 months and Eni plans to resume normal operations at Gela in April 2013. The Gela refinery has a capacity of 100,000 barrels per day (b/d).
* Gas use in power generation is the key to demand growth and consumption looks set to reach 86.6bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2016. Imports are likely to have reached at least 80bcm by that time. By 2021, the country is set to be a net importer of more than 92bcm per annum, potentially costing some US$42bn.
* Snam Rete Gas, the Italian gas distribution network, may be either fully or partly spun off from majority owner Eni, as a result of new liberalisation measures introduced by the Italian government. According to a report in the Financial Times newspaper, citing Italian sources, a spin-off of Eni's EUR5.9bn stake in Snam would create 'industrial advantages' - granting the energy network freedom from antitrust limits. It could also allow Snam to buy stakes in other European operators.
* Italian oil consumption has fallen steadily since 1999. There is scope for very modest annual gains over the next several years, although the lack of economic growth could mean this scenario is overly optimistic. By 2016, oil consumption could hit 1.48mn b/d, climbing to a possible 1.55mn b/d by 2021.
* Italy produced around 156,000b/d of crude oil and gas liquids in 2012. The 500mn barrels (bbl) Val d'Agri oil complex can potentially supply 120,000b/d of light oil, plus heavy oil volumes from the Tempa Rossa field. A near-term rise in domestic oil production is therefore expected. We are now assuming oil and liquids production of 216,000b/d in 2013. Oil imports are set to reach 1.27mn b/d by 2016, rising to 1.37mn b/d by 2021.
Full Report Details at
If oil imports reach 1.27 b/d by 2016, the cost to Italy would be US$45.8bn. Gas imports are likely to be 80.4bcm at this stage, costing some US$39.6bn. The value of total oil and gas imports is set to reach US$85.4bn by 2016, climbing further to US$90.5bn by 2021. At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$111.47/bbl, falling to US$107.00 in 2013. For 2016 and 2021, the current assumptions are US$99.00 and US$97.00/bbl respectively.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Italy Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
- Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 ('000 b/d)
- Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 ('000 b/d)
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Energy Market Overview
- Table: Italy - Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Italy Oil & Gas - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Table: Italy Oil & Gas - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
- Oil and Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Italy
- Service Stations
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- Oil Pipelines
- LNG Terminals
- Gas Storage Facilities
- Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100
- Table: Developed States Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Developed States Downstream Risk*/Reward Ratings
- Italy Upstream Rating - Overview
- Italy Upstream Rating - Rewards
- Italy Upstream Rating - Risks
- Regional Downstream Risks/Rewards
- Italy Downstream Rating - Overview
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players - Italian Energy Sector
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
- Royal Dutch Shell
- Po Valley Energy
- ExxonMobil - Summary
- Enel - Summary
- Petroceltic - Summary
- Mediterranean Oil and Gas - Summary
- Total - Summary
- Saras - Summary
- Lukoil - Summary
- Northern Petroleum - Summary
- AuDax Resources/Kairiki Energy - Summary
- Others - Summary
Developed Europe - Regional Appendix
- Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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