2012-10-26 05:42:56 - New Healthcare research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI View: We forecast deteriorating prospects for drugmakers in Italy because in addition to a decline in public spending on pharmaceuticals (enforced by price cuts on medicines), company revenue streams are under pressure as hospitals are delaying payments worth billions of dollars. Our bearish outlook takes into account the deteriorating state of the economy and the country's enormous public debt burden, in addition to the high levels of unemployment and the subsequent contraction in private consumption.
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: EUR24.90bn (US$34.63bn) in 2011 to EUR23.54bn (US$29.89bn) in 2012; -5.5% in local currency terms (-13.7% in US dollar terms).
* Healthcare: EUR152.17bn (US$211.63bn) in 2011 to EUR155.47bn (US$197.44bn) in 2012; +2.2% growth in local currency terms (-6.7% in US dollar
* Medical devices: EUR6.42bn (US$8.93bn) in 2011 to EUR6.62bn (US$8.39n) in 2012; +3.0% growth in local currency terms (-5.9% in US dollar terms).
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/464512_italy_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_repo ..
Risk/Reward Rating: In our Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk/Reward (RRRs) for Q412, Italy is ninth out of the 10 markets surveyed in Western Europe. Despite being a large market, Italy is characterised by low levels of annual growth, largely because of widespread price cuts. Additionally, the Italian economy is one of the most vulnerable economies in an already shaky eurozone. High levels of public debt, poor infrastructure and a lack of competitiveness indicate that the country will remain one of the region's laggards over the forecast period.
Key Trends And Developments
* In July 2012, aimed at lowering the country's budget deficit, the Italian government announced a series of measures to reduce public spending by EUR26bn (US$32bn) over three years. These add up to a cut in fiscal spending of EUR4.5bn (US$5.5bn) in 2012, EUR10.5bn (US$12.9bn) in 2013 and EUR11.0bn (US$13.5bn) in 2014. Aligning with the government's focus on containing costs in the healthcare sector (the government accounts for nearly 80% of total healthcare spending and nearly 90% of total pharmaceutical spending), the EUR26bn austerity package includes measures to decrease healthcare costs.
* On June 26 2012, as part of a series of proposals that look to cut health spending by EUR8bn (US$10bn) over a period of three years, Italy's health minister Renato Balduzzi proposed slashing spending on medicines that are distributed outside hospitals while increasing the amount spent on drugs used inside hospitals.
BMI Economic View: We forecast Italian real GDP to contract by 1.6% in 2012 as government austerity measures and a wider slowdown in the eurozone hit the economy. We expect the economy to return to positive growth in 2013, but we forecast trend growth to remain a modest 1.5% through to 2016.
BMI Political View: Although Italian ex-Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi looks increasingly likely to return to frontline politics, we do not expect him to lead the People of Liberty back to power in the spring 2013 general election. However, we expect political risk to increasingly weigh on government debt yields as the election approaches.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Italy Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
- Italy Political SWOT
- Italy Economic SWOT
- Italy Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Western Europe Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412
Italy - Market Summary
- Intellectual Property Developments
- Pricing Regime
- Reimbursement Regime
- Healthcare Sector
- Clinical Trials
- Medical Devices
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Overall Market Forecast
- Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators, 2008-2016
- Key Growth Drivers - Industry
- Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators, 2008-2016
- Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators, 2008-2016
- Table: Healthcare Private Indicators, 2008-2016
- Key Growth Drivers - Macroeconomic
- Table: Italy - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %, 2008-2016
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators, 2008-2016
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, 2008-2016
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators, 2008-2016
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators, 2008-2016
- Medical Device Market Forecast
- Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators, 2008-2016
- Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
- Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016
- Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
- Key Risk To BMI's Forecasts
- Pharmaceutical Industry
- Recent Company Developments
- Pharmaceutical Wholesale Sector
- Retail Pharmacy Sector
- Local Companies
- Multinational Companies
- Merck & Co
- Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Italy's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Italy's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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