2013-01-31 09:01:31 - New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Japan Agribusiness Report Q1 2013"

BMI View: While the economy continues on its path of marginal growth, the agribusiness industry will also expand slowly. In 2013, higher domestic prices for foods such as beef, pork and even rice could keep imports strong. However, this also could curb profit margins of food producers and ultimately hurt consumers. Indeed, the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Ministry reported in August 2012 that selfsufficiency on the basis of intake of calories has fallen to a 17-year low of 39%, highlighting fundamental weaknesses in the sector that may be further exposed if Japan returns to the Trans-Pacific Partnership table. To battle this decline in food self-sufficiency, the government will continue its search for overseas farmland as well as invest in foreign

trading companies.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/529395_japan_agribusiness_report_q1_2013.asp ..


Key Forecasts

* Rice production to 2016/17: -9.8% to 7.1mn tonnes. This will bring the rice self-sufficiency ratio down from 0.96 to 0.95 despite an overall decline in rice consumption per capita.
* Beef production growth to 2016/17: 0.8% to reach 508,100 tonnes. Production will grow marginally as consumers on tight budgets prefer cheaper poultry meat and pork to beef.
* Soybean consumption growth to 2017: -13.7% to 2.6mn tonnes. With soybean prices remaining high and Japan heavily dependent on imports, and given a weakening beef sector (the main demand driver for feed soybean), we forecast soybean consumption to continue its decline.
* 2013 real GDP growth: 0.5% (up from -0.6% in 2012, forecast to average 1.0% out to 2017).
* 2013 consumer price inflation: 0.2% average (up from 0.0% average in 2012, forecast to average 1.0% to 2017).

Industry Outlook

Despite a reasonably good rice harvest in 2011/12, the price of the national staple rose to a six-year high in October 2012, leading to increased demand for imported rice. In September, for example, the average trading price was JPY16,650 per 60kg (US$202) for brown rice, and JPY308/kg of polished rice - about 10% higher year-on-year (y-o-y). This has been attributed to the higher prices farmer groups have been paying farmers. Another possible reason is the increase in rice brands and varieties, especially for higherquality rice such as the Hokkaido-produced Yumepirika rice brand, which has received the top 'special A' ranking for particularly sticky rice, which Japanese consumers tend to prefer.

The higher price of rice in Q411 led to a surge in imported rice from China and the US, pushing the total import tender for November 2012 to 88,840 tonnes, more than three times the limit for rice imports. Domestic food companies such as Yoshinoya and Matsuya have also started to see profit margins erode as food-rice prices in Japan jumped 17% y-o-y for the year ended August 2012.

Imports of US beef are expected to rise marginally, by 2% to 760,000 tonnes in 2013, as the production deficit widens, according to the US Department of Agriculture. The expected small growth is owing to higher prices for American beef cuts due to historically small US beef cattle inventories in 2012. This assumption is also on the basis that Japan continues its import restrictions (only allowing animals 20 months and younger to enter).

In July 2012, Mitsui, the country's largest trading house, announced that it had acquired a 10% stake in Luxembourg-based Sodrugestvo Group SA. Sodrugestvo Group SA is Russia's largest soybean meal manufacturer. The alliance will expose the Japanese company to the livestock feed business, while the Russian company will benefit from Mitsui's marketing and distribution resources.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Japan Agriculture SWOT
- Japan Business Environment SWOT
Supply Demand Analysis
- Japan Rice Outlook
- Table: Japan Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Japan Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Japan Grains Outlook
- Table: Japan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Japan Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Japan Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Japan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Japan Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Japan Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Japan Livestock Outlook
- Table: Japan Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Japan Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Japan Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Japan Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Japan Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Japan Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Japan Soybean Outlook
- Table: Japan Soybean Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Japan Soybean Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
- Monthly Grains Update
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
- Asia Fertiliser Outlook
- Asia Machinery Outlook
- Asia GM Outlook
- Table: Select Countries - GM Crops
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Confectionery
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Table: Sugar Confectionery, 2009-2016
- Canned Food
- Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Drink
- Alcoholic Drinks
- Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Table: Beer, 2009-2016
- Table: Wine, 2009-2016
- Hot Drinks
- Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Table: Tea, 2009-2016
- Soft Drinks
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=529395&dt=t

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