2012-08-31 14:09:17 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Malaysia Retail Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research

A low unemployment rate, rising disposable incomes and a strong tourism industry are helping to drive growth in Malaysia's retail sector. We forecast that total retail sales will grow from MYR176.28bn (US$50.04bn) in 2012 to MYR218.40bn (US$62.00bn) in 2016, a rise of 23.9%. Malaysia's nominal GDP is forecast to be US$274. 3bn in 2012, and BMI forecasts average annual GDP growth of 4.1% over the forecast period through to 2016. With the population expected to increase to 31mn by 2016, GDP per capita is predicted to rise 48.6% from US$9,356 in 2012 to US$13,901 in 2016. Malaysia is classified as an upper-middle income country by the World Bank, with the proportion of middle-income households estimated at more than 50% in

2007. According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia, urban households on average spent 1.8 times more than rural households between 2004 and 2005. Average consumer spending was MYR2,285 a month in urban areas and MYR1,301 per month in rural areas. With the urban population predicted to account for almost 76% of the total by 2015, according to UN data, this is likely to have a positive effect on retail sales. BMI forecasts pharmaceutical sales of US$0.52bn in 2012, set to increase to US$0.73bn in 2016, a rise of 39.0%. Consumer electronic sales are predicted to rise from US$14.40bn in 2012 to US$18.73bn in 2016 (+30.1%), boosted by demand from the tech-literate urban middle class and by a growing interest in electronic products from the underpenetrated areas outside the Klang Valley. BMI food consumption data suggest that the food and drink retail segment will have a market share of 32.6% in 2012. The sector is forecast to be worth US$16.29bn in 2012, and sales are expected to grow to US$22.08bn by 2016. Our forecasts suggest a 35.6% share of the total retail market in 2016. Per capita food consumption is forecast to be US$708 in 2016, which is impressive for the region. Although Malaysia is increasingly one of emerging Asia's more established mass grocery retail markets, BMI continues to predict a bright medium-term future for the sector, with industry sales forecast to rise 67.2% to US$22.70bn in 2016 on the back of the country's growing affluent middle- and upper-income consumer base. Tourism is an important contributor to the retail sector. Malaysia registered 24.6mn arrivals and tourism receipts of MYR56.5bn (US$18.5bn) in 2010, surpassing the government's target of 24mn arrivals and MYR54bn in tourism revenue, according to a statement from Tourism Malaysia. For 2011, the Tourism Ministry was targeting 25mn arrivals and MYR60bn in tourism receipts. However, in November 2011, Malaysia Retail Report Q3 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6 Minister of Tourism Ng Yen Yen said that natural disasters and economic difficulties elsewhere in the world meant total arrivals for 2011 were more likely to be around the 24mn mark. BMI now believes that a 2.5% fall in tourism arrivals is likely, plus a 5% fall in tourism revenues. However, we remain bullish about the long-term prospects for Malaysian tourism. Retail sales for the BMI grouping of Asian countries in 2012 are a forecast US$3.77trn. China and India are predicted to account for nearly 92% of regional retail sales in 2012, and by 2016 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2012-2016 is forecast by BMI at 31.1%, an annual average 8.9%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. Malaysia's forecast market share of 1.3% in 2012 is expected to be at the same level in 2016.


Full Report Details at
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Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Malaysia Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Malaysia Political SWOT
- Malaysia Economic SWOT
Market Overview
- Key Players
- Current Trends
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Outlook
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Malaysia Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2012f
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Malaysia - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Regional Retail Outlook
- Asia Pacific Retail Outlook
- Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
- Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (%)
- Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
- Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2009-2016
Risk/Reward Ratings
- Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
- Malaysia's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
- Malaysia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Structure Of Malaysia's MGR Market - Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2005-2011
- Table: Structure Of Malaysia's MGR Market - Sales By Format, 2005-2011 (US$bn)
- Table: Structure Of Malaysia's MGR Market - Sales By Format, 2005-2011 (MYRbn)
- Table: Average Sales Per Outlet by Forma, 2011
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Type, 2012 And 2021 (%)
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: MGR Sales By Format, 2010-2016
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- Malaysia Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
- Malaysia Electronics Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Computers
- Table: Computers Sales, 2009-2016
- AV
- Table: AV: Sales, 2009-2016
- Mobile Handsets
- Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- Malaysia Autos SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Malaysian Passenger Vehicle Sales, 2009-2010
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Production
- Table: Malaysia Autos Production, Sales And Car Ownership Rates
- Sales
- Table: Malaysia Autos Sales Forecast 2010-2016
Passenger Cars - Forecast & Analysis
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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