2013-02-26 01:35:44 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Algeria Agribusiness Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

BMI View: With wheat and dairy production systematically short of consumption, Algeria is a major importer of food products. However, the government's new emphasis on the improvement of food selfsufficiency is helping the grains and dairy sectors revive. Higher government support should be positive for productivity and product quality in the medium term. However, the country will remain a key importer of wheat and dairy products in the coming years. Algeria is increasingly expanding trading links with countries such as Brazil and India, especially for dairy and beef products, and away from its traditional suppliers such as France.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/541187_algeria_agribusiness_report_q2_2013.a ..


Key Views

* Wheat consumption growth to 2017: 17.1% to 10.4mn tonnes. Wheat consumption will be mainly

supported by population growth.
* Milk Powder consumption growth to 2017: 3.0% to 181,770 tonnes. Algeria is already one of the largest markets in the region for whole milk powder, and we therefore forecast consumption of retailed, packed and branded powder to remain relatively stable.
* Barley production growth to 2016/17: 48.5% to 2.0mn tonnes. Our forecast errs on the side of caution. Significant changes to the size of the harvested area from one year to the next are a fairly regular occurrence in Algeria, reflecting the limited availability of water and irrigation.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$2.0bn in 2013 (growth to average 3.3% annually between 2011/12 and 2016/17).
* 2013 real GDP growth: 3.5% (up from 3.1% in 2012; predicted to average 3.4% over 2012-2017).
* Consumer price inflation: 7.3% in 2013 (down from 8.8% in 2012; predicted to average 5.6% over 2012-2017).

Key Developments

The year 2013 will mark the second year of the partnership between France and Algeria over the dairy sector. The French association Bretagne International (linked to local government of the Bretagne Region in France) tied up with Algeria's Ministry of Agriculture and France's Institute of Veterinary Livestock to create the Alban project, which aims to help develop the dairy industry in Algeria. It consists in developing training to breeders in Algeria, in order to establish a modernised and competitive dairy produce industry.

We expect Algerian wheat production to jump in the 2012/13 season starting in July 2012, as favourable soil conditions are currently supporting crops and yields. Algeria's chronic wheat production deficit is expected to narrow in 2012/13 amid higher production and subdued growth in consumption. The government decided to ramp up utilisation rates for wheat mills in recent months, which increased supply on the domestic market and relieved prices. Record high production and relatively high ending stocks are likely to reduce the country's need for wheat imports and will help to alleviate global markets.

A perennial issue with Algerian grain production is that only around 2% of Algeria's grain area is irrigated. With such an arid climate, this is a significant constraint in improving yield levels, leaving farmers extremely vulnerable to volatile weather. The government appears to have acknowledged the issue and plans to increase the area of farmland under irrigation from 1.1mn ha to 1.6mn ha by 2014. However, this objective will be hard to achieve, given the high cost of investment to equip the farms. According to a study by Algeria's Bureau National d'Etudes pour le Developpement Rural (BNEDER), increasing irrigation over 600,000 ha of grains farmland would cost DZD154bn (US$1.96bn).

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Agribusiness
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Dairy Outlook
- Table: ALGERIA Milk Production & Consumption
- Table: ALGERIA Butter Production & Consumption
- Table: ALGERIA Cheese Production & Consumption
- Table: ALGERIA Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption
- Table: ALGERIA Butter Production & Consumption
- Table: ALGERIA Cheese Production & Consumption
- Table: ALGERIA Milk Production & Consumption
- Table: ALGERIA Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption
- Grains Outlook
- Table: ALGERIA Wheat Production & Consumption
- Table: ALGERIA Corn Production & Consumption
- Table: ALGERIA Barley Production & Consumption
- Table: ALGERIA Wheat Production & Consumption
- Table: ALGERIA Corn Production & Consumption
- Table: ALGERIA Barley Production & Consumption
Commodities Price Analysis
- Monthly Grains Update
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
- Monthly Softs Update
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
Upstream Analysis
- Africa Machinery Outlook
- Africa GM Outlook
- Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Table: Algeria - Food Consumption
- Table: Algeria - Fish
- Table: Algeria - Oils & Fats
- Table: Algeria - Margarine
- Table: Algeria - Dairy
- Table: Algeria - Butter
- Table: Algeria - Cheese
- Drink
- Table: Algeria - Beer
- Table: Algeria - Carbonates
- Table: Algeria - Bottled Water
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Algeria - Mass Grocery Retail Sales
Demographic Forecast
- Demographic Data
- Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Algeria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Algeria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

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