2012-02-05 13:58:07 - Fast Market Research recommends "Bosnia-Herzegovina Commercial Banking Report Q1 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available

Navigating Through Global Headwinds While we expect the Bosnian banking sector to continue recovering, a number of powerful headwinds pose downside risks to our forecasts. In particular, the eurozone sovereign debt crisis threatens to spark a credit crunch in southern Europe, while there are increasing signs that the global economy is losing momentum. We believe Bosnian banks are well positioned to navigate such shocks, but we stress that a slowdown in growth and potentially the deterioration in asset quality would nonetheless surface in this scenario. Bosnia & Herzegovina's banking sector continues to expand, albeit at a very slow pace. According to data from the central bank, total industry assets increased by 1.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in June 2011, building on 10

previous months of positive y-o-y growth. Client loans expanded at a faster speed than total assets, with the loan book growing by 4.8% y-o-y in June, up from 4.4% the previous month. While still a far cry from the 20%-plus rate of growth achieved during the height of the last credit boom, the recovery in domestic lending is nonetheless a positive sign that the broader economic recovery is on track. Capitalisation rates have rebounded strongly and deposits have remained broadly stable, supporting systemic stability. Bank capital increased by 18.0% y-o-y in June, while deposits increased by a more tepid 0.3% y-o-y. That client deposits account for approximately 60% of total liabilities is a particularly positive sign for systemic stability given that domestic account holders are typically a more stable form of financing. However, we emphasise that Bosnian banks face a number of headwinds. In particular, the eurozone sovereign debt crisis threatens to cause a credit crunch in southern Europe. With Spain and Italy in the line of fire as a result of weak economic fundamentals, with Italy in particular possessing a huge sovereign debt load, government bond yields have surged. The deterioration in risk sentiment could choke interbank lending and usurp systemic stability. In Bosnia's case, we believe the banking sector is sufficiently robust to deal with such a scenario, but further conflict in the credit markets would pose a downside risk to our growth forecasts. There are also increasing signs that the global economy is losing momentum. US GDP data for Q211 came in at a weaker than expected 1.3% quarter-on-quarter annualised, while the UK economy barely moved over this period. When considered alongside the downturn in purchasing managers' indices and weakening confidence indicators, the global soft patch could still turn into a protracted slowdown. A similar slowdown in Bosnia could increase unemployment and reduce corporate profitability, both of which would drive up non-performing loans. We believe this is a risk rather than a core scenario and forecast Bosnian bank assets to increase by 3.4% y-o-y in 2011 and 5.2% y-o-y in 2012.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/326848_bosniaherzegovina_commercial_banking_ ..


Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- Table: Levels (BAMbn)
- Table: Levels (US$bn)
- Table: Levels At September 2011
- Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2011-2016 (%)
- Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011
- Table: Projected Levels (BAMbn)
- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis
- Bosnia & Herzegovina Commercial Banking SWOT
- Bosnia & Herzegovina Political SWOT
- Bosnia & Herzegovina Economic SWOT
- Bosnia & Herzegovina Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
- Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
European Banking Sector Outlook
- Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios
- Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Anticipated Developments In 2012
- Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (US$bn)
- Table: Comparison Of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011f)
- Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields, 2010-2011
Bosnia Banking Sector Outlook
Economic Outlook
- Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Competitive Landscape
- Market Structure
- Table: Protagonists In Bosnia & Herzegovina's Commercial Banking Sector
- Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe
- List Of Banks
- Table: Banks In The Federation Of Bosnia & Herzegovina
- Table: Banks In Republika Srpska
Company Profiles
- Nova Banka
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (BAMmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- HAA Bank
- Table: Key Statistics For HAA Bank, 2006-2008 (BAMmn)
- NLB Razvojna Banka
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (BAMmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- olksbank ad Banja Luka
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (BAMmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Hypo Alpe Adria Bank dd Mostar
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (BAMmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Intesa Sanpaolo Banka dd Bosna i Hercegovina
- Table: Key Statistics For Intesa Sanpaolo Banka dd Bosna i Hercegovina, 2004-2007 (BAMmn)
Banking Sector Methodology
- Commercial Bank Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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