2012-09-02 16:23:09 - Fast Market Research recommends "China Retail Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available

The China Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on China's economic outlook of the build-up of bad debts in the banking sector, together with sticky core inflation.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Chinese retail market while minimising investment risk. It also explores the impact of a prolonged slump in the eurozone and problems in the US on the Chinese consumer as well as on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Chinese retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth

opportunities offered by the local market.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/451239_china_retail_report_q4_2012.aspx


Chinese per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 52% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 58%. China comes first (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings. Among all retail categories, automotives will be one of the outperformers through to 2016 in growth terms, with unit sales forecast to increase by nearly 66% between 2012 and 2016, from 19.81bn units to 32.83bn units as national manufacturers use their experience of joint ventures with internationals to develop their own brands.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the government's recognition of the potential of alternative-fuel vehicles and the consequent implementation of a pilot incentive scheme.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* China's real GDP came in at 8.1% y-o-y and 7.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) on a seasonally adjusted basis in Q112, much weaker than consensus expectations. Unlike the situation facing the economy in Q109, when a recovery in exports combined with a fiscal stimulus programme resulted in a V-shaped recovery, this time around BMI expects continued lacklustre growth even as the central bank is likely to loosen monetary policy. Our core view of a hard landing remains unchanged, and we are sticking with our 7.5% real GDP growth forecast for 2012.
* While BMI expects private consumption to be an outperformer in 2012 as downside to growth is limited given the high savings rate, the consumer will not emerge unscathed from the economic downturn as falling home prices undermine household wealth. We also expect the unemployment rate to rise, acting as a further drag on consumption. We forecast 8.5% growth in private consumption in 2012, versus an estimated 9.0% in 2011, although we note that actual conditions on the ground are unlikely to be as rosy as this headline figure paints.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- China Retail Business Environment SWOT
- China Political SWOT
- China Economic SWOT
- China Business Environment SWOT
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: China's Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016
- Table: Forecast Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2012f
- Consumer Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: China - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Regional Retail Outlook
- Asia Pacific Retail Outlook
- Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
- Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (%)
- Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
- Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2009-2016
Risk/Reward Ratings
- Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
- China's Retail Risk/Reward Rating
- Limits Of Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
- China Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Leading Players
- Table: Structure Of China's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2011
- Table: Structure Of China's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales By Format, 2004-2011 (US$bn)
- Table: Structure Of China's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales By Format, 2004-2011 (CNYbn)
- Table: Annual Average Store Sales By Format, 2011
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Type, 2012 & 2021
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: MGR Sales, 2009-2016
- Key Industry Trends And Developments
Consumer Electronics
- China Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
- Market Overview
- Computers
- Table: Computers Demand, 2009-2016
- AV
- Table: AV Demand, 2009-2016
- Mobile Handsets
- Table: Handsets Demand, 2009-2016
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- China Autos Industry SWOT
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: China Autos Sector - Production And Sales, 2009-2016
Passenger Vehicles - Forecast and Analysis
- Table: China Autos Sector - Passenger Cars, 2009-2016
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.