2013-09-16 09:04:00 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "China Shipping Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI maintains its cautious outlook for the Chinese port and shipping sector, highlighting that indicators continue to align to back our view of a slowdown in China's economic growth. We maintain our 7.5% projection for real GDP growth for 2013, and caution downside risks to our forecast are certainly mounting. We expect the economy to expand by 6.7% in 2014.
After a decade-long cycle of high commodities prices partly boosted by stellar demand growth in China, the ongoing slowdown of the country's economy and rebalancing away from metal-intensive manufacturing and construction sectors raises questions over the future of China's commodities demand and import needs, with a possible negative knock on effect on dry bulk imports in particular.
Headline Industry Data
Port of Shanghai tonnage throughput forecast to grow 2.4%, with container growth of 3.2% forecast for the year.
* 2013 Port of Shenzhen container throughput forecast to grow 2.0%, with average growth of 2.4% during our forecast period.
* 2013 real trade growth forecast at 4.9%, a considerable slowdown from 2011's estimated 9.4%, but an uptick from 2012's estimated 2.5%.
Full Report Details at
Key Industry Trends
Shenzhen Set To Overtake Hong Kong
A relatively strong start to 2013 has led BMI to revise up its container throughput forecast for China's second largest box port the port of Shenzhen. This strong start has been achieved despite a weakening in the global outlook, which Shenzhen, as China's second largest export hub for containers, is exposed to. The impact of the Pearl River Delta curse also appears to be subsiding, as the port aims to keep pace with the trend of manufacturing moving inland by offering rail connections.
Chinese Container Throughput at Main Ports Up 10% in June
China posted a year-on-year increase of 10% in its port container volume in June, though no detailed figures were given. In the same month, average daily throughput grew 2% compared to May.
Cosco Reports H1 2013 Loss
Chinese ocean freight service provider Cosco Shipping has reported its H113 financial results. The company saw net losses mount to US$12.7mn, a 300% increase y-o-y. The company's loss has been attributed to a broader market slowdown, with both imports and exports falling in June 2013. Cosco warned in April 2013 that it was likely to report a loss for the first half of the year.
Key Risks To Outlook
The risks presented to our China shipping forecasts are primarily to the downside, with a sharper-thanexpected fall in the country's already-declining international trade volumes representing the most immediate threat. In particular, we believe monetary tightening could cause the country's need for materials such as iron ore to ease, leading to a decrease in the import of such commodities.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Port of Shanghai Throughput
- Port of Shenzhen Throughput
- Table: Major Port Data
- Table: Trade Overview
- Table: Key Trade Indicators
- Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2011, US$mn
- Table: Top Import Destinations, 2004-2011, US$mn
- China Container Shipping Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
- Industry Trends and Developments
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- COSCO - Dry Bulk
Shipping - Global Industry View
- Box Supply: Overcapacity Remains, But ETRs Offer Hope
- Table: Q213 Container Vessel Deliveries
- Table: Container Line Mega Vessel Newbuild Plans
- Table: Q213 New Container Ship Orders
- Box Rates: Tough 2013, ETRs Remain The Ones To Watch
- Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Box Demand: Static Outlook Continues, But 2014 Looks Brighter
Global Company Strategy
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company
- CMA CGM
- Evergreen Line
- COSCO Container Lines Company
- Table: China - Economic Activity
- Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com
or call us at 1.800.844.8156.