2012-10-28 15:15:27 - New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Egypt Agribusiness Report Q4 2012"

BMI View: We believe improved domestic grains output will help to mitigate the recent hike in grain prices on the global market. Egypt is expected to import slightly less grains in 2012/13 than in previous years, which is likely to keep food price inflation in check. We have revised down our forecasts for cotton production, as farmers have planted less of the soft on the back of low global prices. The textile industry is showing signs of recovery, but ongoing social unrest in the sector could result in further production disruption in the coming months.

Key Forecasts

* Sugar production growth to 2015/16: 30.3% to 2.4mn tonnes. Sugar beet production is attractive to farmers, as it allows for the cultivation of

alternative crops. Once sugar beet has grown in the soil for a few seasons, salinity declines markedly, allowing for the planting of other crops. In addition, sugar beet can be grown in areas where the soil is poorly suited for other crops.
* Milk consumption growth to 2015/16: 10.9% to 2.0mn tonnes. Growth will be supported by changes in consumption patterns as well as strong population growth.
* Cotton production growth to 2015/16: 24.7% to 694,600 bales. We believe cotton production could rebound strongly as prices are expected to recover slightly from their current bottom. However, because we do not expect prices to return to their 2011 highs, cotton production growth should only be on average 3.0% for the last two years of our forecast period.
* Real GDP growth: 2.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2012 (up from 1.8% y-o-y in 2011)
* Consumer inflation: average 10.0% y-o-y in 2012 (down from 10.1% y-o-y in 2011).
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 5.4% y-o-y decline to US$8.7bn in 2011/12; forecast to grow on average 1.3% annually between 2010/11 and 2015/16.


Full Report Details at
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Industry Outlook

In 2012/13, we forecast Egyptian wheat production to reach a record high, rising by 3.5% y-o-y to 8.9mn tonnes. This is due to an increase in plantings, which have been boosted by high procurement prices offered to farmers in 2012. We expect 2011/12 output to have increased 9.3% y-o-y, backed by higher yields. These increases in output will very likely result in a slight improvement of the country's production deficit in 2011/12 and 2012/13, to around 8.9mn tonnes.

The demand for imports from the local spinning industry is likely to strengthen in the coming months as the country's economic environment improves from the economic stagnation following the political unrest of January 2011. Lower global prices, as well as cooling local prices resulting from the lifting of the import ban, are likely to boost textile production. In a context of a slowdown in the Chinese textile sector, Egypt production could become more attractive.

The country's sugar production is set to increase because of an increase in sugar cane used for centrifugal sugar, rather than for juice or direct consumption. Moreover, local industry sources estimate that farmers make a profit of about EGP135/tonne selling sugar to the government. Beet farmers are meant to make more profit than cane farmers. This is because the cane crop is sold by its weight and not by its sugar content, contrary to the beet crop. Additionally, sugar processors usually encourage beet farmers to sell their crop earlier in the season and pay them more to do so.

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Egypt Agricultural SWOT
- Egypt Business Environment SWOT
Supply & Demand Analysis
- Egypt Rice Outlook
- Table: Egypt Rice Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Egypt Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Egypt Sugar Outlook
- Table: Egypt Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Egypt Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Egypt Dairy Outlook
- Table: Egypt Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Egypt Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Egypt Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Egypt Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Egypt Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Egypt Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Egypt Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Egypt Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Egypt Grains Outlook
- Table: Egypt Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Egypt Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Egypt Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Egypt Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Egypt Cotton Outlook
- Table: Egypt Cotton Production & Consumption, 2012-2016
- Table: Egypt Cotton Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Egypt Livestock Outlook
- Table: Egypt Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Egypt Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Egypt Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Egypt Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Grains Update
- Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Monthly Softs Update
- Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
- Africa GM Seeds Outlook
- Table: Select Countries - Global Rank By Corn Yields In 2011/12
- EMEA Machinery Outlook
- Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Confectionery
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Canned Food
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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