2013-01-08 14:02:47 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Egypt Infrastructure Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

BMI View: Once the fog of revolution has cleared, we expect a young and growing population to support a strong 6.25% real growth between 2013 and 2016. However, with the above in mind, we highlight that the sheer breadth of projects currently under consideration will require a huge investment drive, and will be almost wholly reliant on FDI. As such, although we believe that growth will pick up from 2013 and that ambitious plans to encourage investment pose an upside risk to our forecast, we note that the pace of development will be restrained by issues pertaining to financing.

Construction activity has suffered throughout 2012, in line with our expectations, and we expect the industry to face continued challenges in the

months ahead. Q112 data revealed that the construction sector underwent a 9.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) contraction and overall we estimate that sector contracted by around 6.0% in 2012.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/523892_egypt_infrastructure_report_q1_2013.a ..


Key trends and developments in the sector:

? In November, the European Investment Bank (EIB) approved a EUR600mn loan for the Cairo Metro-Line 3 project and has released the first EUR200mn tranche. The loan is for the third phase of the Line 3 construction, extending the existing line by 17.7km, which will include 15 new stations. The first phase of the east-west metro line was inaugurated in February 2012, running 4.2km, from Attaba to Abbasia in eastern Cairo. The second phase is under construction and due to be completed by 2014, and the third phase is in the design stage. The loan is for an extension that will take the line under the Nile to the western sections of Cairo. ? In terms of aid, Egypt has been the beneficiary of a significant amount of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) funds since last year's revolution. Egypt has recently received more than US$5bn in loans and grants, including US$2bn from Qatar, and loans from Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Development Bank. Representing the widening fiscal deficit and the rising costs of servicing debt, Cairo has also recently requested for $4.8 billion in emergency funding from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and officials in the US have noted that the Obama administration is close to providing US$1bn in debt relief - at the same time, 50 U.S. corporations visited Egypt to explore investment opportunities. ? It was announced in September that Qatar has agreed to pump a huge US$18bn worth of investment into the Sinai region of Egypt, supporting our view that the country's construction industry will pick up dramatically from 2013 onwards. The news came just days after the Egyptian government revealed that discussions had been held over a vast development plan for the region, and represents an increasing trend of Gulf - North African cooperation in the infrastructure space. Noting the risks, we highlight that forthcoming projects will likely be blighted by a dearth of financing options. ? The Egyptian Government has made an annual budgetary provision of US$850mn for new city infrastructure projects, it was reported in July. The US$850mn figure was disclosed by the Egyptian Finance Ministry and represents the budget for the New Urban Committees Authority (NUCA), whose agenda covers the establishment of new cities in the Egyptian periphery. It aims to direct the population away from the overpopulated capital, Cairo.

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
- Egypt Infrastructure Industry SWOT
Market Overview
- Competitive Landscape
- Table: EQS Data
Building Materials
- Global
- Middle East
- Cement Forecasts
- Table: Egypt Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2010-2016
- Table: Egypt Cement Production and Consumption Long Term Forecast, 2015-2021
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Egypt Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016
- Table: Egypt Construction And Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2015-20121
- Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Transport Infrastructure
- Outlook and Overview
- Major Projects Table - Transport
- Table: Major Projects -Transport
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure
- Outlook and Overview
- Major Projects Table - Energy and Utilities
- Table: Major Projects - Energy and Utilities
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
- Outlook and Overview
- Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
- Table: Major Projects - Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
Risk/Reward Ratings
- Egypt's Risk/Rewards
- Rewards
- Risks
- Regional Overview
- Middle East Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Regional Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
Company Profiles
- Arab Contractors
- Orascom Construction Industries (OCI)
Global Overview
Methodology
- Industry Forecasts
- Construction Industry
- Data Methodology
- New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors
- Construction
- Capital Investment
- Construction Sector Employment
- Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
- Project Finance Ratings
- Table: Design And Construction Phase
- Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Commercial Construction
- Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Energy And Utilities
- Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Transport
- Sources

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