2012-10-24 16:11:17 - New Healthcare research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI View: While the Arzneimittelmarkt-Neuordnungsgesetz (AMNOG) legislation will compress drug company's revenue-earning opportunities in Germany, we believe the country will remain an attractive location to launch drugs in. In 2011, Germany's drug market was the fourth-largest globally, after the US, Japan and China. Furthermore, per capita spending is high, there is a sizeable pensionable population and regulations are transparent. These are factors BMI believes will continue to bring in substantial income for companies operating in the country.
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: EUR39.67bn (US$55.15bn) in 2011 to EUR38.64bn (US$49.08bn) in 2012; -2.6% decline in local currency terms and -11.0% in US dollar terms.
* Healthcare: EUR272.69bn (US$379.01bn) in 2011 to EUR279.09bn (US$354.44bn) in 2012; +2.4% growth in local currency terms and
-6.5% in US dollar terms.
* Medical devices: EUR14.97bn (US$20.81bn) in 2011 to EUR15.62bn (US$19.83bn) in 2012; +4.4% growth in local currency terms and a 4.7% decline in US dollar terms.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/464470_germany_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_re ..
Risk/Reward Rating: In our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) for Q412, Germany is ranked third in Western Europe, behind Switzerland and the UK. Despite the tough pricing and reimbursement conditions and the effects of patent expirations, Germany remains one of the largest global pharmaceutical markets, which will continue to prop up its rewards score.
Key Trends And Developments
* In early June 2012, drugmakers said the German government must reform AMNOG. They said the Federal Joint Committee (G-BA) was making companies compare their new drugs to lowergeneric medicines in an effort to drive down medicine prices in the country.
* In June 2012, UK-based drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) said it was ending pricing discussions with the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds (GKVSpitzenverband) for its epilepsy drug Trobalt (retigabine). The company has decided not to market the drug in Germany over concerns about the low reimbursement rate it is likely to get. The company said under AMNOG, the drug would receive a reference price similar to that of appropriate generic comparison products. This follows an evaluation by the G-BA in May that found the drug does not offer any additional benefit. The drug is not available in German pharmacies after July 1 2012 and, until further developments, GSK cannot seek reimbursement for new patients.
* In early June 2012, AstraZeneca and Germany's statutory health insurers announced a nearly EURc50 (US$0.63) price cut for ticagrelor, following the country's first price negotiations under AMNOG. The two parties said the list price for the medication will be EUR2.48 (US$3.15) a day, or EUR905.20 (US$1,150) a year. But the statutory insurers will pay EURc48 (US$0.61) less, or EUR2 (US$2.54) a day, which amounts to a EUR175 (US$222) annual discount, or EUR730 (US$928) annually that insurers will pay per patient for the drug. The agreement is for three-years and is retroactive to January 1 2012. GKV estimates it will save millions of euros over the duration of the contract.
BMI Economic View: Germany's economic outlook remains clouded by the continued risk of a eurozone break-up scenario, which would lead to an immediate collapse in fixed investment and hit external demand for German exports very hard. Even with this scenario remaining outside of our baseline view, uncertainty over the ongoing eurozone crisis will keep business and consumer confidence levels subdued, thus hurting investment.
BMI Political View: The formation of a majority government by the Social Democrats and the Greens in Germany's most populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia will embolden the opposition nationally, and place Chancellor Angela Merkel and her Christian Democratic Union on the defensive. That said, although we see scope for a considerable shake-up in policy and personnel at party headquarters in Berlin, we do not view the election on May 13 as a major threat to the chancellor's chances in next year's general election.
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