2012-09-09 03:50:09 - New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

This quarter we examine the impact of international sanctions on the performance and development of downstream operators, paying particular attention to producers' export performance, credit availability and access to technology. The report assesses progress so far in ongoing projects and how the government is attempting to overcome restraints and the withdrawal of several foreign partners with exposure to North American and European markets in order to raise national petrochemicals capacity to 100mn tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2016.

The government says that in the first quarter of the current Iranian year (beginning March 19) the volume of petrochemical and polymer exports increased despite the heightened sanctions. The National Petrochemical Company reports that its export volumes rose 10% year-on-year (y-o-y) while the

value of exports increased 29% y-o-y. This contributed to a 10% increase in production volumes, although EU sanctions were not in force over these months. There are reports that the government is bartering petrochemicals for imports amid a shortage of foreign exchange. The targeting of the oil sector could stimulate exports of petrochemicals if foreign buyers can find a workaround for the financial sanctions.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/456344_iran_petrochemicals_report_q4_2012.as ..


The petrochemicals industry is not heavily exposed to the EU market, with China and India representing its chief markets.

Iran continues to report some progress in capacity expansion, with recent additions including the commencement of production at the Arvand Petrochemical complex with capacity of more than 2.8mn tpa of petrochemicals including 240,000tpa polyvinyl chloride production capacity. The Kavyan petrochemicals plant is also due for completion in H212, bringing 1mn tpa of ethylene onstream in the first phase alongside the first phase of the 2.5mn tpa west ethylene pipeline, which will feed plants along its route. Nevertheless, projects due to be completed before 2016, such as the 14th olefins complex in Firouzabad with 1mn tpa ethylene capacity, the 15th olefins complex in Genaveh with 500,000tpa of ethylene and the 17th olefins complex in Ilam with 607,000tpa of ethylene, could be significantly delayed under the sanctions regime. Meanwhile, the 12th olefins complex has been postponed.

Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* With capacity expanding fast, current rates of growth are still too low to bring operating rates up to a level that would make Iranian petrochemicals production profitable.
* BMI forecasts that by 2016, ethylene capacity will total 11.08mn tpa with the expected completion of the olefins 11 and 12 projects, which will have capacities of 2.0mn tpa and 1.2mn tpa respectively.
* Further expansion of capacity threatens an oversupply situation despite the high tariff barriers that prevent competition from imports. As such, external markets will be crucial in absorbing increasing Iranian output. That said, these markets are not as healthy as they once were, and Iran is faced with heightened competition.
* This quarter, Iran has fallen one place to sixth place in BMI's proprietary Middle East and Africa Petrochemicals Rankings due to an improvement in Israel's score and a 0.5 point fall in Iran's score to 56.4 points as a result of a deterioration in its country risk score. This places it 0.4 points behind Israel and 1.9 points ahead of South Africa.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Iran Petrochemicals Industry SWOT
- Iran Political SWOT
- Iran Economic SWOT
- Iran Business Environment SWOT
Global Petrochemicals Overview
- Petrochemicals Market Overview
- Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2011 And 2016 ('000 tonnes capacity)
- Financial Results
- Table: Financial Results - Major Petrochemicals Companies, 2011
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, 2011-2016
Middle East Market Overview
- Table: Planned Ethylene Crackers In The Gulf Region
Iran Market Overview
- Table: Iran's Cracker Capacity, 2009-2016 ('000 tpa)
Industry Trends And Developments
- Table: Planned Cracker Projects
- Privatisation
- Sanctions And The Petrochemicals Sector
Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Iran's Petrochemicals Industry, 2008-2016 ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated)
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Iran - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Company Profiles
- Karoon Petrochemical Company
- National Petrochemical Company (NPC)
Demographic Outlook
- Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Iran's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Iran's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Glossary Of Terms
- Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
- Cross Checks
- Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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