2013-02-20 05:26:12 - New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Italy Power Report Q1 2013"
BMI View: With nuclear sources of power off the agenda, and waning support for renewables in Italy, the government has began to raise questions over how the country will meet domestic electricity demand. Local authorities have the authority to overturn power projects, Shell abandoned plans for a LNG project in Sicily because of delays in obtaining local permits, and Prime Minister Mario Monti unveiled plans to remove these obstacles. In December 2012, before announcing his resignation, Monti outlined proposals to cut red tape and accelerate the approval process for infrastructure projects, in a move that the government hoped would attract investors. Monti announced plans to boost domestic oil production so as to to increase electricity produced by this fuel, and
the coal industry has also requested that it be able to play a more important role in energy production. The government's draft national energy plan was published in late October, and if implemented by the next administration, it will be the first renewal of Italy's energy strategy in over two decades.
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Gas-fired power plants account for the nearly half of Italy's electricity generation capacity, and this figure is unlikely to change over the course of our forecast period; the government recently announced plans to boost oil-fired power production, but even if achieved, it will only contribute a single digit share to the electricity mix during the course of our forecast period. Italy has no nuclear power stations and following a referendum in mid-2011, Italians voted against turning to nuclear sources of power.
During the 2012-2021 period, Italy's overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 1.83%, to reach 331.3 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 3.16% gain in gas-fired power. Coal-fired generation is expected to fall by 2.22% per annum, with the use of oil-fuelled generation to drop by an annual average of 1.30% over the period. If the government shows serious intent to increase the role that oil plays in electricity generation, we will increase this forecast once the details of the administration's plans are revealed.
Following an estimated decrease in 2012 real GDP of 2.26%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 0.97% between 2012 and 2021. Over the 2012-2021 period, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast to be 1.44%. Thanks partly to the modest rise in net generation, the growth of which barely matches that of the underlying demand trend, we believe the country's net export capacity will be 9.45TWh by 2017, which could decrease to an import requirement of 0.22TWh by 2021 if investment does not increase appreciably.
The key trends and developments in the Italian electricity market are:
* Italy's government has prepared a draft energy plan in a move to encourage investment in the country's power sector and reduce red tape.
* The European Investment Bank and Enel Green power signed a EUR160mn loan agreement in November 2012, to fund the firm's development of renewable energy projects in Italy to 2014.
* In December 2012, Toshiba announced that it had won an engineering, procurement and construction contract for a high voltage and direct current power conversion system for an undersea power transmission line. The line will connect Cepagatti in Italy with Kotor in Montenegro. Work is scheduled to begin in September 2013.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Italy Snapshot
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- Italy Forecast Scenario
- Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
- Table: Italy Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Italy Total Electricity Generation Data And Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Table: Italy Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Italy Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: Italy Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Italy Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Table: Italy Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Italy Trade Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Italy Risk/Reward Ratings
- Key Policies And Market Structure
- Regulation and Competition
- Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of May 2012
- Italy Power Projects Database
- Table: Italy Power Projects Database
- Developed States Industry Overview
- Table: Real GDP Growth (%)
- Glossary of Terms
- Table: Glossary of Terms
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generating Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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