2012-09-04 09:02:32 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Mexico Power Report Q3 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI View: Over the medium term, Mexico will continue with efforts to boost its renewable power generating capabilities in line with new legislation which calls for non-fossil fuels to account for 35% of the country's energy mix by 2024. Substantial growth in wind power looks set to continue, with Marena Renovables planning to build Latin America's largest wind farm in the country. Moreover, after a slow start, there is potential for greater foreign interest in solar power. Growth of hydroelectric power generation will likely be comparatively subdued due to local opposition and an already high base level that leaves less room for additional expansion.
Full Report Details at
BMI's extended forecast states that during the period between 2012 and
2016, Mexico's overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 2.9%, reaching 305.9 terawatt hours (TWh). Conventional thermal sources will continue to dominate electricity generation, accounting for about 79% of total power production through 2016. Of the thermal energy sources, Mexico is expected to become increasingly dependent on gas-fired power. Gas-fired power already comprises 65.9% of Mexico's total thermal generating capacity, and we expect this number to rise to 69.3% by 2016 as the government attempts to reduce its dependency on oil-fired power.
While the country looks set to remain reliant on thermal energy over our forecast period, in recent years Mexico has focused increasingly on boosting its renewable energy generating capacity - a trend we expect to continue. Indeed, recent legislation requires that clean energy sources account for 35% of power generation by 2024 - a substantial increase on the 20.3% recorded at the end of 2011. The legislation also calls for the government ministries to provide greater incentives for renewable energy production and creates a high-level public agency dedicated to ensuring that Mexico maintains a stable climate change policy across various presidential administrations.
Hydroelectric power has been the primary source of renewable energy generation for Mexico in the past, and between 2012 and 2016, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 3.2%. While the government has shown a strong interest in boosting generating capacity further, there has been significant backlash from local communities and environmental groups against several current projects, which could cap growth. Meanwhile, BMI forecasts a 4.5% expansion in non-hydroelectric renewable generation on the back of robust growth in wind and solar power generation. Solar power has seen far more moderate growth than wind power, but with Californian solar provider SolFocus Inc having recently announced construction of the country's largest solar power installation, this could bolster greater foreign interest. Finally, while the country's National Energy Strategy has called for a substantial increase in nuclear power generation, we have yet to see more substantive action on this front and note that funding could be problematic.
Real GDP grew by 3.9% in 2011, and BMI forecasts average annual growth of 3.2% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 115mn to 127mn by 2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 218TWh in 2011 to 252TWh by 2016, rising further to 286TWh by 2021. During the period 2012-2016, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecasted at 2.9%, which will slow somewhat later in the decade to an average 2.6% in 2016-2021. The theoretical net export capability by 2016 is put at -2.3TWh, falling to -1.5TWh by 2021.
Report Table of Contents:
- Mexico Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
Regional Industry Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Mexico Snapshot (Macro)
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- Mexico Forecast Scenario
- Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
- Table: Mexico Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
- Table: Mexico Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021
- Table: Mexico Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
- Table: Mexico Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: Mexico Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
- Table: Mexico Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: Mexico Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
- Table: Mexico Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021
- Table: Mexico Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
- Table: Mexico Trade Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021
Key Policies/Market Structure
- Regulation And Competition
- Key Projects Database
- Major Projects Table
- Table: Major Projects - Power Plants & Transmission Grids
Risk Reward Ratings
- Latin America Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100
- Mexico Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Comision Federal de Electricidad
- Union Fenosa
Glossary of Terms
- Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generation Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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