2013-02-28 12:24:10 - New Healthcare research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

BMI View: Mexico's relatively low-cost business environment, growing domestic pharmaceutical market and the improving regulatory regime have made it an attractive market to multinationals. The improved performance by market regulator COFEPRIS has allowed Mexico to acquire a reputation for early, speedy approvals of medicines that meet urgent local epidemiological needs and allow direct access to other robust growing pharmaceutical markets in Latin America..

Headline Expenditure Projections

* Pharmaceuticals: MXN176.00bn (US$13.36bn) in 2012 to MXN191.58bn (US$14.97bn) in 2013; +8.9% in local currency terms and +12% in US dollar terms. Forecasts increasefrom Q113 due to improving industry environment.
* Healthcare: MXN965.46bn (US$73.31bn) in 2012 to MXN1,046.9bn (US$81.79bn) in 2013; +8.4% in local currency terms and +11.6% in US dollar terms. Forecasts increase from

Q113 due to improving industry environment.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/541237_mexico_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_rep ..


Risk/Reward Rating: The Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) in Q213 for Mexico remains the same as in Q113. This is also the case for all other countries in BMI's proprietary system that ranks pharmaceutical markets according to attractiveness to multinational drugmakers. A minor reweighting of one of the RRR components is being implemented to improve the tool, and the adjusted scores for all markets will be published in the Q313 updates of the Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare reports.. Mexico has a RRR score of 58.4 out of 100, making it the 4th most attractive pharmaceutical market in America.

Key Trends And Developments

* In November 2012, El Salvador and Ecuador recognised medicine registrations issued by the Mexican Federal Commission for Protection Against Sanitary Risks (COFEPRlS) and allowed easy entry for pharmaceutical products approved by the organisation. It is derived from COFEPRIS' reorganisation by the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) as a National Regulatory Authority of Regional Reference of Medicines and Biological Products. The recognition has reflected an improving regulatory regime in Mexico and fostered confidence among Latin American countries to allow medicines approved by COFEPRIS to entry their domestic markets with simplified process. We note that Chilean government has also signed an agreement with Mexico to allow pharmaceutical products registered in Mexico to enter Chile directly.
* In October 2012, Mexico's Federal Commission for the Protection against Sanitary Risk (COFEPRIS) has approved 60 innovative medicines and 176 generic drugs in the past year. In a late October 2012 announcement, the agency revealed that it had approved 29 innovative drugs from 18 manufacturers, covering 13 indications including cancer, hypertension and some 'rare diseases'. Mikel Arriola Penalosa, the head of COFEPRIS, stated that the organisation has also planned to remove obstacles and speed up certificate issue period from 360 days to 60 days for innovative drugs that had already been approved in Europe, Canada, US and Switzerland. It reflects the agency's more proactive approach to expand the supply of innovative medicines in Mexico.
* In October 2012, Mexico's Federal Commission for the Protection against Sanitary Risk (COFEPRIS) has approved 190 generic medicines in the past 11 months, aiming to provide access to affordable medicines to enable the treatment of country's heavy chronic disease burden, including diabetes, cardiovascular disease, hypercholesterolemia and neuropsychiatric conditions. Mikel Arriola Penalosa, the head of COFEPRIS, estimated that the launch of generic medicines will create savings of a total of MXN14bn (US$179mn) over the next four years and savings of up to MXN1bn (US$12.7mn) with regards to out of pocket medicine payments.

BMI Economic View: We remain optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook, forecasting real GDP growth to average 4.0% between 2013 and 2022 on the back of Mexico's booming manufacturing sector, increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics. That said, we believe Mexico's ability to reverse its severe macroeconomic imbalances and generate the robust growth necessary to propel it to 'developed market' status still hinges on the passage of substantive energy sector reform. We are modestly revising up our 2013 real GDP growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.6% to take into account potential for a stronger export and investment picture, in light of our recent upward adjustment to US growth. That said, this represents a noticeable slowdown from our estimated 4.0% growth in 2012.

BMI Political View: Mexico performs reasonably well in our short-term political risk ratings, thanks to a relatively stable external profile and a benign inflationary outlook. The country's ongoing war against the powerful drug cartels presents continued risks, though we see potential for the situation to begin to stabilise in coming quarters, with the number of homicides per month steadying. Overall, we do not expect a substantial deterioration in the country's long-term political risk rating, which remains one of the strongest in the region thanks to a relatively stable constitutional framework and system of government..

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