2013-03-22 17:01:54 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Nigeria Agribusiness Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

BMI View: Nigeria's agricultural sector has suffered from years of underinvestment and official neglect, inertia and corruption, but there are some positive signs of a longer term recovery. The cocoa, sugar, grains and livestock sectors are beginning to see more support both in terms of investment and in some cases from a government bent on reducing imports to reduce foreign exchange outgoings. The country is a massive importer of sugar, rice and wheat: the first two of which could reasonably be produced in greater quantities, although import tariffs may not be the most efficient way of achieving such improvements. The livestock sectors should continue to develop alongside increasing GDP growth, although most producers remain small-scale.

Key Forecasts

* Sugar production growth

to 2016/17: 61.7% to 105,100 tonnes. Increased private sector investment as well as increasingly punitive tariffs on imports will provide the fundamentals for the pace of recovery in the sector to pick up.
* Cocoa production growth to 2016/17: 57.6% to 331,000 tonnes. Increased investment and the distribution of more resilient hybrid pods will spur the sector's revival.
* Rice consumption growth to 2016/17: 28.2% to 6.7mn tonnes. Tariff hikes imposed by the government are unlikely to have the desired effect as lower prices in the global market will combine with higher incomes to sustain steady growth in consumption of mostly imported rice.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 2.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) decrease to US$7.5bn in 2012/13, forecast to grow on average 2.5% annually between 2011/12 and 2016/17.
* Real GDP growth 2013: 6.8% y-o-y, up from 6.6% in 2012.
* Unemployment rate 2013: 23.6% (down from 24.4% in 2012).
* Inflation (annual average, % chg y-o-y) 2013: 10.5% (down from 12.2% in 2012).


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/552359_nigeria_agribusiness_report_q2_2013.a ..


Key Revisions To Forecasts

* Rice consumption forecast for 2013 revised up, to 6mn tonnes (compared with a previous forecast of 5.4mn tonnes). Lower prices for imports will add further impetus to Nigeria's growing demand for rice. * Cocoa production forecast for 2012/13 revised down, to 200,000 tonnes (compared with a previous forecast of 230,000 tonnes). Black pod disease and flooding have made a bad situation worse.

Industry Developments

The worst floods in over 50 years hit Nigeria after heavy rains fell in parts of the country from July to October 2012. There is still a lack of clear information about exactly the extent of the damage, although

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Agribusiness
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Cocoa Outlook
- Table: NIGERIA Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: NIGERIA Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade
- Rice Outlook
- Table: NIGERIA Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: NIGERIA Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
- Livestock and Dairy Outlook
- Table: NIGERIA Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: NIGERIA Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: NIGERIA Milk Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: NIGERIA Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: NIGERIA Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: NIGERIA Milk Production, Consumption & Trade
- Grains Outlook
- Table: NIGERIA Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: NIGERIA Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: NIGERIA Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: NIGERIA Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Sugar Outlook
- Table: NIGERIA Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: NIGERIA Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Commodities Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
- Monthly Grains Update
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
Upstream Analysis
- Africa GM Outlook
- Africa Machinery Outlook
- Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Table: Food Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Preserved Fish, 2010-2017
- Table: Biscuits, 2010-2017
- Drink
- Table: Beer Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Carbonates Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Bottled Water Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Trade Indicators - Historic Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
Demographic Forecast
- Table: Nigeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Nigeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Nigeria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Nigeria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology

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