2012-02-16 02:22:30 - New Fixed Networks research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

BMI's Q112 report on South Korea's telecommunications market provides a comprehensive overview of the latest developments to occur within the country's mobile, fixed-line telephony, and internet sectors. This quarter we have extended our five-year growth forecasts through to the end of 2016. Our forecasts are based on Q311 data published by South Korea's leading operators - SK Telecom, SK Broadband, KT, and LG Uplus.

By the end of September 2011, South Korea had 52.121mn mobile subscribers, reflecting a net gain of 1.353mn customers in the first nine months of the year. We maintain our forecast that, by the end of 2011, the mobile subscriber base will increase to 56.2mn. This gives South Korea a mobile penetration rate of 108.7%. Although the

South Korean mobile market is already mature, continued mobile customer growth has been the result of stronger smartphone handset penetration rates and the provision of flat-rate data services offering cheaper tariffs. Growth in the number of smartphone customers has a direct effect on the country's 3G subscriber base, which we now estimate reached 47.75mn at the end of 2011. Our new forecast envisages 57.19mn 3G subscribers by the end of 2016, almost 98% of the total mobile subscriber base.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/329513_south_korea_telecommunications_report ..


By the end of 2011, we estimate that South Korea had 27.08mn fixed-line subscriptions, reflecting annual growth of 3.2%, a penetration rate of 56.0%. Much of the recent growth that has characterised South Korea's fixed-line sector is the result of an increasing number of VoIP subscriptions; these are offered over broadband internet connections of a bundled service offering. Between 2012 and 2016, we envisage average annual growth of 1.3%. This will result in a market with 28.83mn fixed-line connections and a penetration rate of 58.5%.

We maintain our view that South Korea had just more than 37.4mn internet users at the end of 2011, up by 1.1% over the year. We also estimate that South Korean had 18.1mn broadband subscribers at the end of 2011, up by 5.1% y-o-y. This was a penetration rate of 37.4%. We expect slower broadband subscriber growth to result in increasing competition in the area of bundled and converged services. Our newly extended forecast envisages 20.37mn broadband subscribers and 38.67mn internet users at the end of 2016, with penetration rates of 41.4% and 78.5%.

Key developments of note in South Korea's telecoms sector include the news in December 2011 that the country's second largest cellco KT faced a new stumbling block in its plans to introduce LTE-based 4G services in the form of its existing 2G customer base. KT had planned to use the 1.8GHz 2G service frequency for its LTE service. However, it now appears that around 159,000 2G customers had refused to give up their 2G mobile phones or network services. The operator had planned to halt its 2G service on 8 December 2011 and had even received approval from the regulator to do so. However, the Seoul Administrative Court subsequently blocked these plans. The court's decision made it unlikely that KT would launch its 4G service before the end of 2011. By contrast, rival operators SK Telecom and LG Uplus both announced the commercial launch of LTE services in June 2011.

South Korea has fallen from 4th to 5th position in BMI's latest set of Business Environment Ratings for the Asia Pacific Telecoms markets. This is in spite of receiving higher scores in the Country Risks category. We expect South Korea's real GDP growth to slow to a below-consensus 3.1% in 2011 and 2.4% in 2012. This comes on the back of a rapidly deteriorating global economy, which is likely to weigh heavily on South Korea's export-dependent economy. Meanwhile, we believe that the sudden death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's poses new risks for East Asian security. Although his son Kim Jong Un appears to be taking over, the younger Kim has little political experience to run what is one of the world's most troubled countries. We therefore believe there is a high possibility that he will be a mere figurehead, with real power wielded by the military. Over the long term, we could see tentative reforms, although there is still a risk of eventual state collapse. About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.