2012-09-29 17:26:08 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "South Africa Petrochemicals Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research
The latest South Africa petrochemicals report examines trends in the domestic market that are likely to lead to an emphasis on imports over the coming quarters, as feedstock supply problems constrain production growth. We also analyse the key challenges in the sector and look at a range of factors that include labour, power supply and a weakening external environment. BMI also explores the opportunities for long-term growth which emanate from the automotive and construction sectors - both at home and elsewhere in Sub- Saharan Africa (SSA). We also examine the impact of a Chinese slowdown and the eurozone crisis on South African polymers. Capacities are not expected to rise significantly or at a rate that will challenge competitors in the
Middle East and Asia. In 2011, South Africa had petrochemicals capacities of 650,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) ethylene, 330,000tpa propylene, 560,000tpa polyethylene (PE), 60,000tpa polyethylene terephthalate (PET), 200,000tpa vinyl chloride monomer/polyvinyl chloride (PVC), 680,000tpa polypropylene (PP) and 145,000tpa methanol. South Africa-based petrochemicals group Sasol's ethylene purification unit at its Sasol Polymers plant is set to come onstream by mid-2013. The company hopes to increase ethylene production by around 48,000tpa by 2015 and will have PE production facilities, thereby reducing the import dependency of South African plastics converters. There are no further plans for significant expansion or new plants over the next five years, according to BMI research. Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views: Ethylene feedstock constraints, caused by instability in supply at Sasol's coal-to-liquids plant at Secunda, are undermining polymer margins, particularly the company's production of lowdensity polyethylene (LDPE) and linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE), and as a result the country will be forced to rely on imports. Polymer consumption will track the economic trend. Economic growth in South Africa is expected to be slow but steady - our forecast is for real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2012 - and the latest macroeconomic data are fairly encouraging, with a modest recovery expected over the next few years. In BMI's Middle East and Africa Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) matrix, South Africa ranks seventh scoring 54.5 points, a rise of 2.1 points on the previous quarter due to an improvement in its country risk score. It lies behind Israel and ahead of Turkey.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/464581_south_africa_petrochemicals_report_q4 ..
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