2013-02-28 15:20:56 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Venezuela Power Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

BMI View: Whilst the inclusion of new historic data has led to a significant revision of our estimates for 2011 as well as of our short-term forecasts, our relatively bearish view for Venezuela power sector remains unchanged on account of macroeconomic and sector-specific dynamics. Imbalances between supply and demand in Venezuela's National Electricity System (SEN) continue to plague the country's electricity market, with electricity shortages and power rationing also hindering its economic performance. In addition, following President Hugo Chavez's re-election in October 2012, BMI anticipates a continuation of his unorthodox policies, which will heighten economic imbalances and keep social tensions elevated in Venezuela.

In spite of repeated promises by the government, delays and problems with funding continue to represent an obstacle

to capacity development and improvements to the transmission and distribution (T&D) system in Venezuela, effectively capping short-term potential:


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/536600_venezuela_power_report_q1_2013.aspx


* Venezuela continues to rely largely on a combination of imported energy and programmed power cuts to cope with demand as the system displays its inadequacy. Delays in project implementation are also widespread, losses during power transmission are a concern, and theft is a considerable issue, with 30% of electricity illegally stolen, according to government calculations. A bleak short-term picture further obfuscated by Venezuela's macroeconomic outlook and poor business environment. Although BMI revised our 2012 real GDP growth forecast for Venezuela from 4.7% to 5.3% following a recent data revision by the central bank, our Country Risk analysts anticipate a continuation of unorthodox policies which will heighten economic imbalances and keep social tensions elevated in the country following President Hugo Chavez's re-election in October 2012. A deterioration of the country's key oil sector is also expected to reduce the government's ability to continue to finance growth.

Additionally, low levels of transparency, and liberalisation, coupled with high corruption and a volatile political picture will continue to hinder investment, as highlighted by Venezuela's tail ender position in BMI's Power Risk/Reward Ratings. With regard to the medium and long term, we note that upside and downside risks are both at play, influenced by a number of interrelated variables. Most notably, the growing gap between demand and supply is likely to force the government into action. Yet, the cohesiveness of any intervention is far from assured.

On a more positive note, we highlight the growing interest showed by Chinese investor in the country's Power sector. In July 2012, state-owned China State Grid Corp signed a US$1.31bn power transmission agreement with Venezuela's National Electric Corp. This was followed by an agreement for the development of 900 megawatts (MW) of oil coke-based and carbon-based electric power in December 2012.

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Power
Industry Forecast
- Venezuela Snapshot
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- Venezuela Forecast Scenario
- Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
- Table: Venezuela Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts
- Table: Venezuela Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts
- Table: Venezuela Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts
- Table: Venezuela Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: Venezuela Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts
- Table: Venezuela Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: Venezuela Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts
- Table: Venezuela Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts
- Table: Venezuela Trade Data And Forecasts
- Table: Venezuela Trade Long-Term Forecasts
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Venezuela Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Rewards
- Risks
Market Overview
- Key Policies And Market Structure
- Regulation and Competition
- Venezuela Power Projects Database
- Table: Venezuela Power Projects Database
Competitive Landscape
- Corpoelec
- Edelca
- EDC
Regional Overview
- Latin America Regional Overview
Glossary
- Glossary of Terms
- Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generating Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
- Sources

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