2013-03-22 17:08:19 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Philippines Shipping Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
The Philippine economy managed to successfully traverse the global economic headwinds in 2012, experiencing a solidly above-consensus year in 2012, expanding by at least 6.0% even as the rest of the region slowed. BMI believes that the economy of the Philippines will continue to be an outperformer in the region on the back of strong investment activity and a resilient consumer. The Philippine economy continues to outperform both consensus expectations and its regional peers, with the latest data showing a blistering 7.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) expansion in Q312. Indeed, on the back of a surging construction sector as well as the robust Philippine consumer, we estimate that the economy grew by at least 6.0% in 2012. That said, we believe it
will be difficult for the Philippines to maintain its impressive rate of export growth in 2013 as a strong peso begins to weigh on outbound shipments. Nevertheless, we do see some signs of light in the beleaguered electronics export segment, which makes up approximately 43.3% of total exports. Electronics exports expanded by 13.3% y-o-y in November, the strongest growth rate since February 2012 and enough to bring the 3-month moving average (3mma) to 4.9%, its fastest clip since March. In line with our expectations for China's economy to experience a transitory growth pickup in H113, the Philippines may be well-poised for a parallel uptick in electronics exports given its role in the region's semiconductor value chain.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/552370_philippines_shipping_report_q2_2013.a ..
A reprieve for the country's poorly performing electronics exports would provide a huge boost for overall exports, and therefore, the shipping sector, which in 2012 relied on surprisingly high demand for the country's miscellaneous manufactures. However, such a strong performance in manufacturing is unlikely to be repeated in 2013, and exports are likely to return to dependence on the electronics sector.
By port, the country's outperformer in terms of tonnage throughput in 2013 is set to be the Manila International Container Terminal (MICT), which will edge ever so slightly ahead of the Port of Cebu with year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 4.98% at the former compared to 4.90% at the latter. In box terms, Cebu may not be able to outdo MICT in twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) handled, but will enjoy more impressive y-o-y gains in 2013 (6.69% compared to 6.00%).
Over the medium term to 2017, MICT will enjoy the strongest average annual growth in tonnage terms, averaging above 5% over this period, while in the container sphere, box throughput will see the highest y-oy growth at the Port of Cebu.
Headline Industry Data
* 2013 tonnage throughput at MICT forecast to grow 4.98% to 20.33mn tonnes.
* 2013 tonnage throughput at the Port of Cebu forecast to increase 4.90% to 28.13mn tonnes.
* 2013 tonnage throughput at the Port of Davao forecast to rise by 2.50% to 11.48mn tonnes.
* 2013 tonnage throughput at the Port of Cagayan de Oro forecast to increase 1.20% to 6.38mn tonnes.
* The real value of Philippines' total trade will rise by 5.50% this year, with exports totalling US$82.25bn, behind imports at US$93.00bn.
Key Industry Trends
Philippines Set To Become Asia-Pacific Centre For Ship Repairs
The Philippines is making a concerted effort to install itself as the Asia Pacific region's centre for ship repairs, the Manila Bulletin Publishing Corporation reported at the end of November 2012. A study by the Japan International Cooperation Agency identified the country as having the ideal constituents for ship repair. These include an inland sea, bay and deep seashore; a significant labour force; and financial encouragement for prospective investors. The Philippines will also benefit from other Asian countries, including China, Japan and South Korea, requiring further territories in order to expand their own ship repair industries. The Philippines' own ship repair sector is, however, relatively small and will require direct foreign investment in order to realise its full potential.
PNOC Sells Assets Of Its Shipping Subsidiary
Philippine state-owned Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC) is to sell the assets of its shipping subsidiary, beginning with its single-hulled petroleum product tankers. A pre-bidding conference was scheduled to be held on November 28 2012 in order to give an opportunity to interested parties for threshing out any apprehensions with the bidding process, according to PNOC Shipping and Transport Corporation (PSTC). The bidding process for the ship, M/T Gen. Antonio Luna, with a floor price of PHP87.1mn (US$2.1mn) will take place on December 6, according to a notice by PSTC. Meanwhile, the single-hulled, M/T Dr. Jose P. Riza, with a floor price of PHP113.2mn (US$2.8mn) is also up for sale.
Famous Pacific Introduces Domestic Ocean Services
Famous Pacific Forwarding Philippines launched two-way domestic ocean services, to connect the main international ports of Manila and Cebu to key ports across the islands, in December 2012. The new domestic services were rolled-out as the company's existing clientele expressed strong demand, the company's Director Marina Rollan said. The new weekly services will have a port rotation of Davao, Cagayan de Oro and other main southern destination ports. Meanwhile, depending on the demand, the services can also cater other ports. Additionally, the company is offering ro-ro services as well as planning to add conventional capacity at a later date.
Key Risks To Outlook
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