2013-09-18 08:53:21 - New Country Reports research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI Political Risk Ratings The al-Saud regime has proved relatively resilient in the face of the Arab Spring, and the country has for the most part avoided the widespread anti-government demonstrations that swept throughout much of the Middle East and North Africa in 2011. However, the monarchy's position is heavily reliant on a combination of large handouts of cash in the form of public sector wages and subsidies, and a heavy-handed repression of dissent. In the long run, these strategies could prove unsustainable, and we would not rule out an uptick in popular dissatisfaction with the regime in the years ahead.
Partial Table of Contents:
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks To Outlook
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Involvement In Syria Brings Risks
- Saudi Arabia has stepped up its involvement in the Syrian civil war in recent months, asserting a leadership role that was previously occupied by Qatar. This rising exposure carries several risks. For one, the increasingly sectarian nature of the conflict could ignite further tensions in Saudi Arabia's Shi'a-dominated Eastern Province and will accelerate the flow of Saudi jihadists to Syria. At the same time, Riyadh has few concrete tools to influence events on the ground.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Scenarios For The Coming Decade
- The Saudi royal family depends on steady oil revenues to maintain its tight grip on the population. As a result, a sustained downturn in global oil demand could lead to substantial unrest and, potentially, regime change over the long term.
TABLE: RECENT LEADERSHIP CHANGES
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity I
Forecasts Downgraded, But Momentum Remains Robust
- We have moderated our growth outlook for Saudi Arabia slightly on the back of weak Q113 data and a soft Purchasing Managers' Index reading in June. That said, we see the non-hydrocarbon sector continuing to expand at a rapid clip and expect a recovery in oil output over the second half of the year. We now forecast real GDP growth of 3.6% in 2013 and 4.3% in 2014, from previous forecasts of 4.1% and 4.6%.
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Moderate Inflationary Pressure In H213
- We hold to our view that inflationary pressure in Saudi Arabia will remain relatively moderate in the coming quarters, with food price growth remaining the main driver of the headline print. We forecast consumer price inflation averaging 4.1% and 4.0% in 2013 and 2014 respectively.
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
Weekend Shift Prefigures Further Reform
- Saudi Arabia will shift its official weekend to Friday and Saturday from June 29 onward, bringing its working week in line with the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The move, which will facilitate closer economic ties with the rest of the region, is the latest in a series of reforms passed in recent months. We expect the reform momentum to be sustained over the coming years, though believe the pace of change will remain gradual.
Economic Activity II
July PMI Highlights Continuing Slowdown
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
The Saudi Economy To 2022
Politics Main Risk To Long-Term Outlook
- Assuming the survival of the current form of government into the medium term, we see ongoing strong growth and asset accumulation via real expansion in investment and exports amid relatively high oil prices.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 4: Business Environment
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
Business Environment Outlook
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
TABLE: MENA - ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS (US$MN)
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
TABLE: PRESCRIPTION DRUG MARKET INDICATORS, HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS
TABLE: GENERICS DRUG MARKET INDICATORS, HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS
TABLE: OVER-THE-COUNTER MEDICINE MARKET INDICATORS, HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS
TABLE: MOBILE - HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECAST
TABLE: ARPU - HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECAST
TABLE: INTERNET - HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECAST
TABLE: FIXED LINE - HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECAST
Other Key Sectors
TABLE: OIL & GAS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: DEFENCE & SECURITY SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: FOOD & DRINK SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: AUTOS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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