2013-12-12 14:58:48 - New Healthcare research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
In the wake of Slovenia's continuing budgetary issues, the threat of cuts to healthcare spending is clear, and the Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia (ZZSS) will likely come under pressure to rein in or reduce expenditure. We forecast the country's unemployment rate will climb to almost 15% in 2014, putting significant strain on the ZZZS, which is primarily dependent on insurance contributions. Spending cuts, pay freezes and price reductions for pharmaceuticals are all measures that could be employed to reduce the deficit. The pharmaceutical sector faces the prospect of price ceilings and further cost-cutting measures. As a result, we believe healthcare and pharmaceutical spending will not show real growth until 2015 at the earliest.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/723621_slovenia_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_r ..
* Pharmaceuticals: EUR738mn (US$949mn) in 2012 to EUR723mn (US$960mn) in 2013; -2.5% in local currency terms and +0.9% in US dollar terms.
* Healthcare: EUR3.25bn (US$4.18bn) in 2012 to EUR3.22bn (US$4.28bn) in 2013; -1.0% in local currency terms and +2.4% in US dollar terms.
Slovenia's Risk/Reward Ratings score remains weak, at 51 out of a total of 100, just below the regional average score of 52. A combination of economic factors and the acknowledgement that the government may retain its focus on cost savings have resulted in a slightly less optimistic outlook.
Key Trends & Developments
* In October 2013 the Ministry of Health and the Health Institute of Slovenia (ZZZS) rolled out reimbursement limits based on therapeutic groups for proton pump inhibitor drugs. We believe this will be rolled out to other therapeutic groups in the near future.
* In February 2013, the economic development and technology minister of Slovenia announced that he would continue to work towards preserving the state's 25% interest in local pharmaceutical firm Krka. The announcement came after Krka was classified by the government as a company eligible for sale. Krka's management and other parties have expressed concerns over the proposed divestiture.
BMI Economic View: Slovenia's short-term growth outlook has deteriorated further as a crisis in the banking sector and a wave of austerity weigh on economic activity. Real GDP growth recorded its worst output since 2009 in the first quarter of 2013, and we expect conditions to improve only marginally by the end of the year. With unemployment set to rise further, confidence low and uncertainty abound, we expect the recession to continue into 2014 (-0.2%), with only a modest return to growth in 2015 (1.0%).
BMI Political View: The Slovenian government faces a monumental challenge to convince foreign investors and the local electorate that it is capable and trustworthy as it attempts to rescue the banking sector and bring public finances under control. Tough austerity measures are likely to face political and social resistance, putting pressure on the broad, four-party coalition, though a common interest in avoiding a bailout could yet keep it together. If it fails to do so we would anticipate early elections, most likely in 2014.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
- Table: Slovenia Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Healthcare Market Forecast
- Table: Slovenia Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Slovenia Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Slovenia Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Prescription Drug Market
- Table: Slovenia Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Slovenia Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Slovenia Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: Slovenia Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
- Table: Slovenia Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
- Table: Slovenia Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (EURmn)
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Economic Analysis
- Table: Slovenia - Economic Activity
- Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Slovenia Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Trends And Developments
- Healthcare Sector
- Intellectual Property Regime
- Pricing Regime
- Reimbursement Regime
- Pharmaceutical Industry
- Recent Pharmaceutical Industry Developments
- Lek (Novartis/Sandoz)
- GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
- Merck & Co
- Table: Slovenia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Slovenia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Slovenia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Slovenia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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