2012-12-02 16:23:35 - New Consumer Goods market report from Business Monitor International: "Sri Lanka Tourism Report 2013"
The Sri Lanka Tourism Report examines the strong long-term potential being offered by the country's tourism industry, bolstered by fast-rising demand from regional source markets such as China and India. However, we caution that a relatively low national room supply, coupled with underdeveloped infrastructure in some areas, provide two challenges for the local tourism industry as it develops.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by some of the leading players in the local tourism sector (ie, airlines and hotel chains) as they seek to maximise the long-term growth opportunities being offered by the Sri Lankan market.
In 2011, Sri Lanka welcomed 855,975 tourists, according to figures released by the Sri Lankan Tourism Development Agency (SLTDA), representing
an increase of 30.8% y-o-y. This strong performance reflected the continuation of a peaceful security situation and the relative cheapness of Sri Lanka as a destination, something which will only have been enhanced by the February 2012 abandoning of the Sri Lankan rupee's peg to the US dollar. Since that time, the rupee has depreciated dramatically.
Full Report Details at
Looking at trends so far in 2012, Sri Lanka welcomed 622,661 tourists over the first eight months, an increase of 15.8% y-o-y. Growth was seen from all regions, with the exception of the Middle East, whose arrivals fell by 3.3% y-o-y. For the full year, BMI believes there is still scope for arrivals to increase at a slightly faster rate than the eight-month trend would indicate, with November and December historically strong months for inbound tourism flows to Sri Lanka. Against this backdrop, BMI is forecasting growth of 20% for inbound tourist arrivals in 2012, which would take the full-year total to 1,027,170.
Beyond the current year, BMI believes arrivals to Sri Lanka can grow at a strong annual rate of at least 10% per annum. BMI's tourist arrival forecasts remain dependent on a peaceful security situation. Any recurrence of civil conflict, which we think is unlikely, would pose a clear downside risk to our forecasts.
Over the past year, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
* BMI has extended its forecast period for tourist arrivals and revenue forecasts out to 2017. BMI believes that tourist arrivals can increase by 61% between end-2012 and end-2017, to total just over 1.65m. Tourism revenues should also increase, by 95.8%, to reach US$3.76bn by end-2017.
* BMI believes that the opening of Hambantota International Airport (scheduled for end-2012) should provide strong support to tourism arrivals over the forecast period, especially on shorthaul international routes to south Asia and the Middle East.
Report Table of Contents:
- Sri Lanka Tourism SWOT
- Sri Lanka Political SWOT
- Sri Lanka Economic SWOT
- Sri Lanka Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Arrivals Data, 2010-2017
- Table: Hotels Data, 2010-2017
- Table: Tourist Expenditure Data, 2010-2017
- Inbound Tourism
- Table: Inbound Tourism Data, 2010-2017
- Outbound Tourism
- Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2010-2017
Market Overview - Travel
- Commercial Airlines
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts And Bloomberg Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
- New hotels
- Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
- City Terrorism Ratings
- Table: BMI Asia City Terrorism Index
- South Asia Security Overview
- South Asia In A Global Context
- External Power Dynamics
- The Outlook For South Asia
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2011-2017
- Table: Global & Regional Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y
- Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014
- Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014
- Developed States
- Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%)
- Emerging Markets
- Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%)
- Table: BMI v Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2012-2013 (%)
- Aitken Spence Hotels
- John Keells Hotels
- Sri Lankan Airlines
- Sri Lanka's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Sri Lanka's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Sri Lanka's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Sri Lanka's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Tourism Industry
- Tourism Ratings - Methodology
- Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
- Table: Weighting of Components
- City Terrorism Ratings
- Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology
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