2012-11-17 07:38:49 - New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report Q4 2012"

Times are tough for Trinidad & Tobago's oil and gas industry, with 2011 oil output having slumped, and US demand for the country's gas exports on the slide. The government expects an upturn in 2012 drilling activity and, with several new smaller international oil companies (IOCs) now involved as well as a 2012 deepwater bidding round, there is some scope to slow the rate of decline in oil production.

The main trends and developments we highlight in the Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) oil and gas sector are:

* Upstream companies operating in T&T will invest US$3bn in oil and gas exploration activities over 2012, Energy Minister Kevin Ramnarine said in February 2012. Some 15 exploration wells will be drilled, mainly by

Canada-based companies Parex Resources and Niko Resources and by BP, he said. Five drilling rigs are currently operating in the country, with six seismic programmes continuing or starting in 2012.
* BP Trinidad and Tobago (BPTT) plans to spend US$1.1bn in 2012, which will include seismic surveys of its existing acreage, its president said at an energy conference in T&T in February.
* Bayfield Energy made a discovery in T&T's Galeota block in March 2012. Preliminary estimates extrapolated from the first well indicate that the area could hold 32mn bbl of recoverable oil, with potential for production of greater than 1,000 barrels per day (b/d).
* In April 2012, national oil company (NOC) Petrotrin confirmed that cluster six of the onshore Southwest Soldado field could hold at least 48mn bbl of both light and heavy varieties of oil. Petrotrin will embark on a forward drilling programme in 2013.
* The 2012 deepwater licensing round, which was launched in April 2012, ended on September 4 2012 after a month-long extension. Six offshore oil and gas blocks in north-eastern and eastern Trinidad were put on offer. In order to increase interest, more seismic information on its deepwater acreages were made available while it also increased cost recovery rate to 80% to make it more competitive. Results are expected to be announced in October 2012.
* We estimate that crude oil and gas liquids production fell by almost 24% in 2011, largely due to maintenance activity and unexpected field disruptions. There should be some recovery in 2012, but the overall trend is one of falling output unless substantial investment can unlock new volumes. We are forecasting supply of 132,380b/d in 2012, easing to 126,500b/d by 2016. Output could be no more than 111,500b/d by 2021. Given demand is set to rise from an estimated 43,710b/d to 53,130b/d over the period, net exports by 2021 are set to be just 50,000b/d.
* We have revised our forecast for T&T's gas production. We now expect the fall in output experienced in 2011 to last through 2014, declining from an estimate of 40.0bcm in 2012 to 38.8bcm in 2014. This trend will reverse as the return of BPTT's capacity, together with new projects, pushes production back up. In 2016, production is forecast to have returned to 40.7bcm and will continue to rise to 45.8bcm by the end of our forecast period in 2021.
* In 2012, T&T's oil and gas exports are set to yield US$13.2bn - falling towards US$8.25bn by 2021 as oil export volumes are reduced and gas sales volumes remain fairly constant.


Full Report Details at
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At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price of US$107.05/bbl for 2012, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013 and US$93.25/bbl in 2016. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 2.17%, reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt crisis. For 2013, growth is estimated at 2.46%.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Trinidad & Tobago Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
- Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point
- Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2010-2016 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 ('000b/d)
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Trinidad & Tobago Energy Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Table: Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- LNG
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Trinidad & Tobago
- Service Stations
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- LNG Terminals
- Table: LNG Terminals In Trinidad & Tobago
- Gas Storage Facilities
- Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Latin American Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- T&T Upstream Rating - Overview
- T&T Upstream Rating - Rewards
- T&T Upstream Rating - Risks
- T&T Downstream Rating - Overview
Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Players
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- Licensing Rounds
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
- Petroleum Company of T&T (Petrotrin)
- The National Gas Company of Trinidad & Tobago (NGC)
- BP Energy Company of Trinidad & Tobago (BPTT)
- BG Trinidad & Tobago
- BHP Petroleum Trinidad
- Centrica
- EOG Resources
- Sinopec - Summary
- Chevron - Summary
- Repsol - Summary
- Total - Summary
- ALNG - Summary
- Unipet - Summary
- Niko Resources - Summary
- Others - Summary
Latin America - Regional Appendix
- Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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