2012-11-17 07:38:54 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Turkey Tourism Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research
The Turkey Tourism Report examines the latest performance of the tourism sector and looks at its longterm potential. The rate of growth in foreign tourism broadly slowed during 2011, after an impressive start earlier in the year (probably boosted by the Arab Spring, which affected tourism rivals in the region such as Egypt and Tunisia), but remained strong at just under 10% compared with 2010.
In the short term, BMI anticipates a sharp slowdown in the sector, mainly due to extremely weak economic conditions in the eurozone - a major source region. Also, regional political instability, particular the situation escalating in Syria which has a border with Turkey, is likely to deter visitors. This represents a reversal of fortunes for Turkey,
as BMI believes that the sector benefited from the regional instability in 2011. Ongoing domestic political violence also remains a threat to tourism.
Full Report Details at
Provisional figures for January-July 2012 show a decline of just under 2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in foreign visitor arrivals. This shows a slight improvement during the year to date. The key source market for tourist arrivals, Germany, recorded modest growth of 4% y-o-y, while the number of visitors from the second largest market, Russia, was down about 2%. The UK, meanwhile, recorded a near 7% fall.
Visitors from Europe as a whole fell by 1% y-o-y, though there was slight positive growth in the number of arrivals from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Of note, there was a substantial fall in arrivals of close to 40% y-o-y from both Iran (a top ten source market) and Syria.
Provisional data for Q212 record something of a turnaround in the hospitality sector (after a bad start to the year in Q1), with a modest 3.7% y-o-y increase in total room nights. Foreign tourist nights (80% of the total), rose just under 4% compared with the same quarter in 2011. Domestic tourist nights were up a slightly weaker 3%.
In an effort to meet rising tourism demand, the Transport Ministry is expected to announce a tender competition for the construction of a third airport in Istanbul shortly. The aim is to complete the bidding process by end-2012.
Over the last quarter BMI have revised the following forecasts and views:
* BMI's growth forecasts for foreign arrivals have been revised down marginally to 1.7% and 5.5% in 2012 and 2013 respectively.
* BMI's eurozone real GDP growth forecast for 2013 has fallen to 0.7% from 1.0% previously. Growth in Germany is forecast to slow sharply to 0.7% (revised up from 0.4%) in 2012, but picking up to 1.5% (edged down from 2.0%) in 2013. For the UK, our economic growth forecast for 2012 has been revised down to 0.2% (from 0.6%).
* BMI believes that a key factor behind the slowdown in the sector in the short term is the fall in demand from tourists who chose Turkey as a holiday destination in 2011 because of the Arab Spring. This may explain why arrivals to Turkey fell sharply in the period February-April 2012 (from a high base period in 2011).
* BMI expects stronger appreciation of the Turkish lira over the next two years, constraining growth in the tourism sector.
Report Table of Contents:
- Turkey Tourism SWOT
- Turkey Political SWOT
- Turkey Economic SWOT
- Turkey Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Arrivals, 2009-2016
- Table: Hotels Data, 2009-2016 ('000, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2016
- Inbound Tourism
- Table: Inbound Tourism, 2009-2016
- Outbound Tourism
- Table: Outbound Tourism, 2009-2016
Market Overview - Travel
- Commercial Airlines
- Table: Key Turkish Commercial Airlines
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, 2011-2016
Market Overview - Hospitality
- Accommodation Developments
- Health Tourism
- Tourism Infrastructure
- Table: central And Eastern Europe Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Europe Security Overview
- Europe In A Global Context
- Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
- What If The Eurozone Collapses? Political Risks Assessed
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
- Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
- Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
- Developed States
- Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
- Emerging Markets
- Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
- Dedeman Hotels & Resorts International
- Turkish Airlines
- Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population)
- Table: Turkey's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Turkey's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Tourism Industry
- Tourism Ratings - Methodology
- Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Components
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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