2013-03-02 15:44:04 - New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

BMI View: We continue to favour the grain sector in the country as we see more growth opportunities for production and more diversity in export demand. If the country's poultry exports have just been authorised into the EU, we do not see a similar opening for dairy exports in the near term and therefore see weaker growth coming strictly from domestic demand. In fact, we have revised down our outlook for growth for the country in the near term and believe this will particularly impact demand for meat and dairy products, as they tend to be considered less staple than grain. Production for these could also be mildly discouraged as a result.

Key Forecasts

* Wheat production growth to 2016/17: 1.0%

to 22.2mn tonnes. We see the majority of investment going for the wheat sector in the near term and see export demand supporting production. The rate of growth over the whole forecast period is here minimal because of base effects (2011/12 was a bumper year).
* Poultry consumption growth to 2016/17: 14.0% to 955,000 tonnes. Poultry demand will benefit from improving domestic income conditions as well as its preferred status as a cheaper and healthier alternative to red meat.
* Milk production growth to 2016/17: 3.1% to 11.2mn tonnes. Over the medium term, consolidation and increased investment are expected to start to compensate for industry exits, with production projected to start rising again from 2014/15 and to reach 11.2mn tonnes in 2016/17.
* 2013 real GDP growth: -0.5%, down from 0.1% in 2012. Predicted to average 1.9% from 2012 to 2017.
* 2013 consumer price inflation: 4.1% average, up from 0.5% in 2012.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 16.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) decrease to US$18.4bn in 2012/13, forecast to grow on average 3.9% annually between 2011/12 and 2016/17.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/541292_ukraine_agribusiness_report_q2_2013.a ..


Industry Outlook

Ukraine-based dairy company Milkiland announced slower sales growth in 9M 2012 with a 4% decline in sales of the main cheese and butter segment was offset by 12% growth in the whole milk products segment. Weaker sales growth was explained by the ripple effects of the Russian ban on cheese exports from Ukraine, which was lifted in May but has had longer-term effects on the company's sales than expected. Milkiland indicated recently that it would only return to its pre-export ban levels by November 2012, thus impacting Q412 sales.

The 2012/13 Ukrainian grain harvest was effectively complete as of mid-December, and in line with our long-held expectations, production fell owing to lower yields. The country's wheat crop was particularly affected, falling by more than 40% to 13.0mn tonnes, while corn production fell by a comparatively small 6.7% to 21.0mn tonnes. The wheat crop was one of the lowest in 15 seasons.

The vertically integrated Ukraine-based poultry company MHP looks well positioned to take advantage of the growing consumption of white meat in the country. At a time when a number of food and drink companies have found strong growth hard to come by in Central and Eastern Europe, MHP has benefited from some key trends, with annual sales growing by an average rate of 28.5% over the past five financial years.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Agribusiness
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Dairy Outlook
- Table: UKRAINE Milk Production & Consumption
- Table: UKRAINE Butter Production & Consumption
- Table: UKRAINE Cheese Production & Consumption
- Table: UKRAINE Milk Production & Consumption
- Table: UKRAINE Butter Production & Consumption
- Table: UKRAINE Cheese Production & Consumption
- Grains Outlook
- Table: UKRAINE Wheat Production & Consumption
- Table: UKRAINE Barley Production & Consumption
- Table: UKRAINE Corn Production & Consumption
- Table: Ukraine - Agriculture Ministry's Estimate Of Machinery Needs For The Farm Industry In 2007 (Units)
- Table: UKRAINE Wheat Production & Consumption
- Table: UKRAINE Barley Production & Consumption
- Table: UKRAINE Corn Production & Consumption
- Livestock Outlook
- Table: UKRAINE Poultry Production & Consumption
- Table: UKRAINE Pork Production & Consumption
- Table: UKRAINE Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
- Table: UKRAINE Poultry Production & Consumption
- Table: UKRAINE Pork Production & Consumption
- Table: UKRAINE Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
- Monthly Grains Update
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
Upstream Analysis
- Europe Fertiliser Outlook
- Europe GM Outlook
- Europe Machinery Outlook
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Drink
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=541292&dt=t

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