2012-09-04 17:11:32 - Fast Market Research recommends "United Arab Emirates Power Report Q3 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI View: Clean coal, nuclear and renewables all form part of the long-term energy plan, although it would be a surprise should the UAE bring operational reactors online within the current decade. The emirates appreciate the need to cap oil and gas use in power generation, so new clean coal technology is set to be used over the medium term. There is growing momentum behind the use of renewables (particularly solar), with international backing being sought for ambitious programmes.
It has been estimated that the UAE's electricity sector will require at least US$8bn in investment over the next six to eight years in order to meet growing demand, and the government has plans to expand installed capacity by more than 50%
during the current decade. The first nuclear power plant could be completed by the end of 2020.
Key trends and recent developments in the UAE electricity market include:
* During the 2012-2021 period, the UAE's overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 5.27%, reaching 138.7 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 4.88% gain in gas-fired and a 0.91% rise in oil-fired generation, accompanied by rapid growth in renewables-based electricity supply, albeit from a very low base. It is assumed that nuclear generation will be available from 2021, while a clean coal facility is possible during the forecast period.
* The UAE has reconfirmed its renewable energy aspirations, revealing that the government aims to boost investment in clean energy technology over the next five years and attract AED367bn (US$100bn) of investment in alternative and sustainable energy projects by 2020.
* Under its Integrated Energy Strategy 2030, Dubai plans to reduce energy imports and CO2 emissions by 30% between now and 2030, using domestic solar power and nuclear power imported from neighbouring Abu Dhabi to reduce its reliance on gas. With diversification in mind, in late 2011, the emirate's Supreme Council of Energy launched the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park, with a view to setting up 10 megawatts (MW) of installed capacity by 2013, and eventually 1 gigawatt (GW) by 2030.
* Following an assumed increase in 2012 real GDP of 3.67%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 3.66% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 8.1mn to 9.3mn during the period to 2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 80.5TWh to 125.9TWh by 2021. During the 2012-2021 period, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 5.12%.
* Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, the growth of which at least matches the underlying demand trend, the UAE is likely to create a small power supply surplus by the end of the decade as new capacity kicks in - particularly if the nuclear option is used. We also anticipate a gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses - from around 10.1% to 9.2%.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/456306_united_arab_emirates_power_report_q3_ ..
Report Table of Contents:
- UAE Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
Regional Industry Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
- UAE Snapshot (Macro)
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- Forecast Scenario
- Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
- Table: UAE Total Electricity Generation - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
- Table: UAE Total Electricity Generation - Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
- Table: UAE Electricity Generating Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
- Table: UAE Electricity Generating Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: UAE Total Electricity Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
- Table: UAE Total Electricity Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: UAE Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
- Table: UAE Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses - Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
- Table: UAE - Historical Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
- Table: UAE - Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021
Key Policies/Market Structure
- Regulation and Competition
- Sustainable Energy Policies
- Key Projects Database
- Table: Major Projects - Power Plants & Transmission Grids
- MEA Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
- UAE Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Dubai Electricity And Water Authority (DEWA)
Glossary of Terms
- Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generation Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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