2014-01-07 20:29:16 - Fast Market Research recommends "Vietnam Food & Drink Report Q1 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available
Despite slower than expected economic recovery in 2013, our outlook for Vietnam's economy in 2014 is positive. Recently released macroeconomic data shows a strong rebound in domestic consumption, which is felt across a wide spectrum of consumer industries. The consumer is expected to benefit from rising inflow of remittances and suppressed levels of inflation over the coming quarters. While we have maintained our 2014 GDP growth forecast at 6.0%, we see potential for upside surprises.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
* Per capita food consumption growth (y-o-y) in 2013: +7.99%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017: +9.03%.
* Alcoholic drink value sales growth (y-o-y) in 2013: 14.28%; CAGR to 2017: +13.98%.
* Soft drink value sales growth (y-o-y) in 2013:
+15.10%; CAGR to 2017: +14.15%.
* Mass grocery retail sales growth (y-o-y) in 2013: 12.84%; CAGR to 2017 = +12.66%.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/759153_vietnam_food_drink_report_q1_2014.asp ..
Key Industry Trends
Sabeco Begins Construction On New Brewery: Vietnam-based brewer Saigon Beer Alcohol And Beverage Corporation (Sabeco) has started construction on a new brewery in Vietnam's Ninh Thuan region. The US $21mn facility will have an estimated annual capacity of 50mn litres of beer. The brewery will cover an area of 20 hectares and is expected to address the rising demand for Sabeco products in the south-central region. The brewery is scheduled to become operational in the next 12 months.
Vinamilk Opens US$110mn Milk Plant: Vietnam-based dairy group Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company (Vinamilk) has opened a new dairy plant in Vietnam's Binh Duong province, investing US $110mn. The plant will cover an area of 20 hectares and have an annual capacity of 400mn litres of milk in the first stage. The plant will help the company to achieve its goals of raising its annual revenue to US$3bn by 2017 and becoming one of the 50 largest dairy companies in the world, according to Vinamilk's CEO, Mai Kieu Lien.
McDonald's To Launch In Vietnam: Fast-food company McDonald's is one of the world's standout brands, with a presence in most countries. It has built a strong international business over the past 40 or so years and will soon be able to chalk off Vietnam from the list of Asian economies where its famous burgers cannot be found. It will launch its first restaurant in early 2014, in the commercial capital Ho Chi Minh City. Vietnam will be the 38th Asian market that McDonald's has entered and, judging by its track record in emerging markets across the world, we believe that its prospects look strong.
Auchan Considers Vietnam Entry: The latest multinational reported to be entering the Vietnamese market, as of summer 2013, is French retailer Auchan which, according to local sources, is set to inject US$500mn in the next decade. This highlights the attractive long-term potential of a country that has been largely devoid of international investment in the grocery sector.
Key Risks To Outlook
Downside Risks Prominent: Should commodity prices witness a strong rebound in 2013, we could see Vietnam's central bank adopting a more hawkish stance on monetary policy. The risk of having to hike interest rates aggressively would present significant downside risks to economic growth in Vietnam. Additionally, despite multiple devaluations since late 2009, Vietnam's trade deficit has witnessed a steady improvement. However, should we fail to see a sustained improvement in the trade balance, we would not be surprised to see the Vietnamese dong coming under further selling pressure.
While we expect private consumption to grow at a relatively resilient pace of 5.0% in 2014, we note that the risk of further bankruptcies among SMEs could potentially lead to widespread job losses, especially in export-driven sectors. Uncertainties over the outlook for employment could, in turn, prompt households to cut back on spending.
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