2013-08-20 09:08:30 - Fast Market Research recommends "Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q3 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
We do not expect any improvements in the way of the operating environment for pharmaceutical industry players in Zimbabwe, especially as the political situation remains tense in the runup to the elections. Although a Japanese drugmaker announced it will build a manufacturing facility in the country, we see this as an isolated example of foreign direct investment (FDI) into Zimbabwe, on account of an overwhelmingly negative business situation. We continue to envisage a continuation of medicine shortages, especially as local manufacturers fold their drug production operations due to unviability and competition posed by imports.
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: US$203mn in 2012 to US$223mn in 2013; +10.0% in local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast largely in line with Q213.
- www.fastmr.com/prod/670603_zimbabwe_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_r ..
Risk/Reward Rating: In BMI's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) table for Q313, Zimbabwe is again ranked 28th out of the 30 markets surveyed in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, even following a minor reweighting of one of the RRR components that had been implemented to improve the tool. Zimbabwe will remain one of the least-attractive pharmaceutical and healthcare markets regionally and globally, on account of the elevated political, economic and social risks,, as well as the lack of finances for adequate healthcare provision and capacity utilisation.
Key Trends And Developments
* In April 2013, Zimbabwe-based MedTech Holdings Limited was reported to have accepted an offer from a local firm to buy its remaining stake in Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals (Zimpharm). Although the offer involves a nominal sum, it provides certain guarantees against the company's huge losses, the directors added. In mid-2012, the company outlined its plans to offload the unprofitable unit, and followed it up in November 2012 by closing down the associate owing to feasibility concerns. This also highlights the operating difficulties facing the wider pharmaceutical and healthcare sector in the country.
* In February 2013, the Zimbabwean Ministry of Health and Child Welfare ordered nursing training institutions to curtail nursing enrolments, owing to financial constraints, as the government cannot absorb the nurses completing training. In 2009, the government imposed a ban on hiring nurses. However, the move is viewed as having a negative consequence on the need to prioritise non-emergency care in a bid to cut costs.
BMI Economic View: Zimbabwe continues to face significant liquidity constraints as net inflows to the dollarised economy continue to be limited due to political uncertainty in the lead-up to elections, the exact timing of which also remains unclear at present. Although this is helping to keep inflation very low, it is also curbing economic growth. We forecast headline real GDP growth of 4.9% in 2013 with risks weighted to the downside.
BMI Political View: Election timing remains uncertain in Zimbabwe, with signs of infighting in his ZANU-PF party potentially dampening President Robert Mugabe's desire to hold elections as soon as possible. As we have argued for some time, however, more important than election timing is the environment in which they take place. With Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC party's demand for security sector reform looking almost certain not to be fulfilled, we believe the battle will shift to the level of international observation of the election something over which the MDC is likely to have more leverage, given it controls the finance ministry and therefore election funding.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
- Table: Zimbabwe Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Healthcare Market Forecast
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Pharmaceutical Trade
- Table: Zimbabwe Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
- Table: Zimbabwe Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (ZWDmn)
- Other Healthcare Data
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Economic Analysis
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
- Zimbabwe Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Trends And Developments
- Table: Zimbabwe: Healthcare Facilities
- Varichem Laboratories
- Zimbabwe Demographic Forecast
- Table: Zimbabwe's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Zimbabwe's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Zimbabwe's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Zimbabwe's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
- Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
- Notes On Methodology
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com
or call us at 1.800.844.8156.