2013-09-16 09:10:59 - Fast Market Research recommends "Chile Freight Transport Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI maintains a cautious outlook on Chile's freight transport sector. We continue to expect that 2013 will see a shift in the Chilean economy, and we forecast real GDP growth to fall from 5.6% in 2012 to just 4.3% this year and average 4.2% from 2014-2017, below consensus estimates. This slowdown in growth is attributable to decelerating economic activity in China, which over the next several years will result in weakening real demand for Chilean copper exports and reduced investment into the country's mining sector, which have the effect of depressing road, rail and maritime dry bulk freight volumes.
Much of Chile's pre-crisis economic boom was due to its ability to take full advantage of a highly favourable external environment. While
world trade flows and copper prices have picked up dramatically since their lows in 2009, we forecast that commodity prices, specifically copper, will fall from recent highs over the medium-to-long term. Lower copper prices will place renewed importance on shifting away from export- and investment-led growth to a more diversified economic growth trajectory, one that is more reliant on private consumption. If private consumption takes an increased share of Chile's economy, we may see increased growth in air freight, as well as in maritime container volumes, as both freight modes are used to carry consumer goods. Rail freight, however, will be hit hard by a move away from mining.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/684717_chile_freight_transport_report_q4_201 ..
Headline Industry Data
* Air freight tonnage is forecast to rise by 5.05% in 2013 to reach 336mn tonnes.
* Total tonnes at the port of Valparaiso forecast to rise 11.2%, to 11.53mn tonnes in 2013, with average growth of 7.5% over the next five years.
* Rail freight tonnage is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2013, reaching 26.01mn tonnes, with average growth of 0.03% over the next five years.
Key Industry Trends
BMI Bearish On Chilean Rail Freight
BMI is relatively bearish with regards to the Chilean rail freight sector's growth prospects in the coming years. The sector is highly exposed to the Latin American country's exports of raw materials, in particular copper to China. As growth in China slows, with the threat of an economic hard landing still a very real threat as the Asian dragon will at some point have to undergo a costly rebalancing of its economy, so will its demand for copper imports from Chile.
LAN Restarts Flights Following Agreement With Intercargo
LAN Airlines announced on May 18 that is was gradually resuming domestic and international flights in Argentina. LAN had suspended all flights to and from Argentina on May 17 owing to a dispute with Argentina's Intercargo.
Valparaiso Port to Double In Size
Valparaiso will double in size by 2017, following an investment from the Spanish company OHL Concesiones of almost US$350mn for the construction of a second terminal. OHL Concesiones won a 30- year concession to build and run the terminal on 3 April this year. The company outbid Ports America, Empresas Navieras and Besalco for the opportunity to operate the terminal.
Risks To Outlook
The risks to our outlook are mainly on the downside. One risk is the possibility that Chile will not be able to improve its freight transport infrastructure to keep up with demand. Infrastructure deficits limit expansion. If Chile does not improve efficiency and capacity, there is risk that, as ports and road and rail networks begin to reach the limits of their capacity, importers will look elsewhere for their supplies
Secondly, we remain concerned about the effects of decelerating economic activity in China, which over the next few years will result in weakening for Chilean copper exports and will have a negative knock-on effect on the country's freight volumes.
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com
or call us at 1.800.844.8156.