2013-02-20 05:25:53 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Colombia Power Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI View: With hydroelectricity meeting nearly all of Colombia's energy requirements, concerns over energy shortages are considerable - not least given that El Nino phenomenon is expected in late 2012 and early 2013, affecting rainfall and energy generating capacity at hydroelectric power plants. Colombia is already taking steps to diversify its sources of electricity, with several thermal power plants under construction and ambitious plans to turn the country into a net exporter of electricity generated by gas. Utilities are second-guessing these plans, in November 2012, Emgesa's shareholders voted in favour of entering the gas market in 2013.
Hydroelectric power continues to contribute to over 80% of total consumption in Colombia, despite the inherent problems associated with this source of energy. This
overdependence is even more acute in years of low rain: in November 2012 government officials announced that its reservoirs are sufficiently high to cope with the El Nino meteorological phenomenon, which is forecast for late 2012/early 2013. The hydroelectric sector is also plagued with other setbacks, such as protests at the construction site of the El Quimbo hydroelectric power plant.
Full Report Details at
During 2012-2016, BMI forecasts that Colombia's overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 4.7%, reaching 72.0 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth are annual gains of 4.2% in hydroelectric power generation, while coal and gas-fired generation are forecast to increase by an annual average of 1.3% and 2.6%, respectively.
Following a rise in real GDP of 4.4% in 2012, BMI expects average annual growth of 4.4% between 2012 and 2021. Net power consumption looks set to increase to 58.5TWh by 2016, rising to 71.5TWh by 2021. The theoretical net export capacity by 2016 is put at 1.61TWh and Colombia's export capacity will increase to 1.72TWh by 2021.
Key developments in Colombia's power sector this quarter include:
* Alstom secured a contract for the supply of equipment for the Ituango hydropower plant. Worth nearly EUR170mn (US$216.3mn), Empresas Publicas de Medellin has charged Alstom with the supply of eight generators and turbines, and other equipment.
* Colombia's Mining Energy Planning Unit forecasts that Colombia will need at least an additional 1,900MW of electricity generating capacity before 2018 in order to guarantee sufficient electricity supply.
* Plans for the Colombia-Panama interconnection line were revived this quarter - following a decision to postpone the tender planned for August 2012 - with representatives from both governments meeting in September 2012 and again in November 2012 to discuss the project. While technical and economic studies have been completed, barriers still remain.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Colombia Snapshot
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- Colombia Forecast Scenario
- Table: Colombia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts
- Table: Columbia Total Electricity Generation Data And Long-Term Forecasts 2016-2021
- Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
- Table: Columbia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts 2010-2016
- Table: Columbia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: Colombia Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Columbia Total Electricity Consumption Data And Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: Columbia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts 2010-2016
- Table: Table: Columbia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021
- Table: Columbia Trade Data And Forecasts 2010-2016
- Table: Columbia Trade Data And Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Colombia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Key Policies And Market Structure
- Regulation and Competition
- Sustainable Energy Policies
- Colombia Projects Database
- Table: Colombia Key Projects
- Interconexion Electrica (ISA)
- Empresas Publicas de Medellin (EPM)
- Union Fenosa/EPSA
- Empresa de Energia de Bogota (EEB)
- Interconexion Electrica SA (ISA)
- Regional Overview
- Latin America Regional Overview
- Glossary of Terms
- Table: Glossary of Terms
- Methodology and Sources
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generating Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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