2013-12-23 19:16:49 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Congo Oil & Gas Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
With production in steady decline and few major projects expected to come on-stream over the next few years, the Republic of Congo (RoC)'s upstream oil outlook does not inspire much confidence. However, Eni's vast oil sands project in the country's south could offer some long-term opportunities. If this project is realised, this would be the first of its kind on the continent.
The main trends and developments for the RoC's oil and gas sector are:
* BMI expects crude and liquids production to decline steadily due to most of the production coming from mature fields and the lack of new projects coming on stream. We see liquids production falling from an estimated 292,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to just
under 270,000b/d in 2022. This relatively gradual decrease is explained by a small number of new projects coming on-stream, offset by a steady decline rate in mature field output.
* Refined products consumption of crude is likely to rise at an annual rate of 7% from 2012 to 2022. We therefore anticipate that consumption will rise from an estimated 12,000b/d in 2012 to just under 24,000b/d by 2022.
* BMI forecasts that gas production will increase from an estimated 1.4bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012 to 4.8bcm by 2022. Domestic gas use will be boosted by the implementation of enhanced oil recovery techniques that include the reinjection of gas in mature fields to improve natural lift. Gas demand is set to rise at an average annual growth rate of 14%. This is explained by the country's strong expected macroeconomic expansion.
* congolese crude reserves are likely to start declining from their 1.60bn barrels (bbl) peak of the 2007-2013 period. Unless substantial discoveries are made, new deepwater basins opened or oil sands resources proven to be commercially viable, current discovery rates would see reserves falling to 1.5bn bbl in 2017 and then to 1.0bn bbl by 2022.
* In the downstream sector, the authorities have struggled to modernise CORAF, the country's sole refinery. Despite an US$868mn investment deal signed with Saudi Arabia's Rawabi Holding Company in February 2008 to increase capacity at the plant to 100,000b/d, there has been no sign of upgrade at the plant. We have not factored any expansion in our forecasts and we see capacity stagnating at 21,000b/d with an average utilisation rate of 65.8% throughout the decade.
Full Report Details at
The RoC's dependence on energy prices and its declining production offer a rather bleak picture for its export revenues. The global oil and gas market having moved away from the cycle of tight global supply we saw in 2011 and the first half of 2012, and with global production now comfortably meeting demand, we believe OPEC basket oil prices will decrease from their average of US$109.5/bbl in 2012 to US$105.0/bbl in 2013; thus creating a clear downside risk to the RoC's export revenues. Therefore, we see the country's oil and gas export revenues falling from US$11.2bn in 2012 to US$9.4bn in 2017 and then to US$9.0bn by 2022.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Table: Congo (Brazzaville) Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2011-2016
- Table: Congo (Brazzaville) Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2017-2022
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Congo (Brazzaville) Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016
- Table: Congo (Brazzaville) Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Congo (Brazzaville) Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016
- Table: Congo (Brazzaville) Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2017-2022
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Table: Congo (Brazzaville) Refining - Production and Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Congo (Brazzaville) Refining - Production and Consumption, 2017-2022
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Republic Of Congo - Risk/Reward Ratings
- Congo Upstream Rating - Rewards
- Congo Upstream Rating - Risks
- Congo Downstream Rating - Rewards
- Congo Downstream Rating - Risks
- Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
- Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
- Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Downstream Woes Still Weigh Down On Reward Potential
- Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Republic Of Congo Energy Market Overview
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- Licensing Rounds
- International Energy Relations
- Oil & Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Congo
- Service Stations
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- Oil Pipelines
- Competitive Landscape Summary
- Table: Key Players In The Republic Of Congo's Energy Sector
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
- Total Congo
- Other Summaries
- Africa Overview
- Subsalt Expectations
- Turning Eastward
- East African Gas Boom
- Fuelling Development: The Downstream Race
- Post-Revolutionary Blues
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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