2013-09-16 09:11:51 - New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Czech Republic Autos Report Q4 2013"
Our general view for the Czech auto sector in 2013 is bleak, largely on the back of our belief that private consumption will remain subdued. Results for the year so far bear this out, with the heavier commercial vehicle (CV) segments outperforming the passenger and light commercial vehicle segments.
We hold a bearish outlook on private consumption in the country, although there are signs that this is starting to pick up modestly. We have long maintained that the decline in passenger car sales will therefore moderate somewhat in the second half of 2013 on the back of weaker base effects and improved market sentiment. This is beginning to play out. Accordingly, we maintain our forecast for an 8% decline in passenger
car sales in 2013.
We expect a relatively brighter picture for CVs in 2013 in line with our view that investment spending will gradually increase throughout the year. Moreover, the total CV market is still struggling to return to its preglobal financial crisis levels, leaving a certain amount of room for pent-up demand. We forecast a contraction of 4.1% for the total CV market, led by a 3.0% increase in bus sales, although this will still leave the bus segment below 2011 levels.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/684720_czech_republic_autos_report_q4_2013.a ..
In terms of production, light vehicle output was hit by the news that the Toyota Peugeot Citroen Automobile (TPCA) plant saw a drop of 20% in productivity y-o-y in 2012 to 215,000 as a result of weak demand in Europe. Radek Knava, a spokesperson for the TPCA plant, believes the economic situation will most likely result in a further drop in 2013.
Indeed, data for 6M13 shows a decline in most of the vehicle segments, particularly the light segment combining cars and light commercial vehicle (LCV) derived models. On the back of this weak performance, TPCA's expectations and our view that demand in major export markets will remain subdued for months to come, we maintain our forecast for 2013 passenger car production to contract 8.0%. At the same time, we retain our forecast for overall production in all the segments to decline 8.0% in 2013, to 1.1mn units. In line with our view that the European market will see the beginnings of a recovery heading into 2014. However, we forecast modest growth, which should gain momentum during our forecast period to 2017.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Production And Sales
- Table: Czech Autos Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Passenger Vehicles
- Table: Czech Republic Automotive Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Passenger Cars 2012
- Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Passenger Cars 7M13
- Alternative Fuel
- Commercial Vehicles
- Table: Czech Automotive Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Light CVs 2012
- Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Trucks 2012
- Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Buses 2012
- Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Light CVs 4M13
- Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Trucks 7M13
- Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Buses 7M13
- Macroeconomic Forecast
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Autos Risk Reward Ratings Europe
- Company Monitor
- Skoda Auto
Global Industry Overview
- Demographic Outlook
- Table: The Czech Republic's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: The Czech Republic's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: The Czech Republic's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: The Czech Republic's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Automobile Industry
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