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New Market Research Report: Egypt Agribusiness Report Q2 2013


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2013-03-14 10:44:56 - New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Egypt Agribusiness Report Q2 2013"

BMI View: Egypt remains the world's largest wheat importer, and high global prices are feeding into domestic prices, even if minimally. Even though imports needs have been slightly lower this year, we do not see this as a pattern and believe the country's import needs will only get larger in the coming years. We continue to see the lifting of the three-year-old ban on rice exports as providing a boost to the local industry. The sugar and cotton industries are still under pressure because of falling global prices, but we expect a recovery in the coming months as companies make some price adjustments. The livestock and dairy industries are likely to recover soon from the recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, which

had a milder impact than expected. We like the growth opportunities for a company such as Juhayna Foods, which is exposed to the strong consumer story in the country.

Key Forecasts

* Cotton production growth to 2016/17: -2.3% to 727,700 tonnes. We see limited growth because of the lack of available arable land and the slow recovery of the economy.
* Sugar consumption growth to 2016/17: 14.3% to 3.1mn tonnes. Sugar consumption is mainly driven by the local confectionery sector but also by the soft drinks sector, with the growing population and rising disposable incomes stimulating demand.
* Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 18.3% to 986,600 tonnes. This will come from improvements in productivity as well better integration of livestock producers and therefore gains in margins. Our forecast for a moderation in grain prices in the medium term should also help.
* Real GDP growth: 2.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2013 (up from 2.2% y-o-y in 2012)
* Consumer inflation: average 9.5% y-o-y in 2013 (up from 7.2% y-o-y in 2012).
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.7% y-o-y increase to US$9.6bn in 2012/13; forecast to grow on average 2.6% annually between 2011/12 and 2016/17.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/552297_egypt_agribusiness_report_q2_2013.asp ..


Industry Outlook

Our view for imports from the Egyptian authority for Grains (GASC) to slow from November 2012 onwards has played out well as GASC tenders only amounted to half what they had been between June and October 2012. In fact, since November, GASC tendered for a total of 1.0mn tonnes of wheat, while it imported 2.3mn tonnes of wheat between June and October 2012. We believe the country's grain authority could tender for 1.0mn tonnes more before the end of the 2012/13 season, but see downside risks to this view because of the current low availability of wheat for export on the global market.

Lower crushing spreads limited Delta Sugar's net income in 9M12, as the company's beet-sugar sales were lower and came mostly from depleted inventory. Lower sales were due to a slow start to the crushing season, mainly because of delay to the harvest because of winter frosts. Also, Delta Sugar's chairman indicated that increased sugar imports from Brazil at the start of the season made locally produced sugar less competitive and therefore reduced sales potential.

Dina For Agricultural Investments SAE, an investment company of Gozour, the Citadel Capital multicategory agriculture platform indicated in November having taken receipt of 1,000 pregnant heifers from the US. The company decided to invest in its dairy herd in order to improve its production capacity as well as output quality. Dina announced recently it would invest in a total of 8,000 cows imported from the US by the end of 2013. Egypt's dairy cattle currently amounts to about 4.0mn heads, and continuous investment in better genetics and higher number will support milk production in the medium term.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Agribusiness
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Rice Outlook
- Table: EGYPT Rice Production & Consumption
- Table: EGYPT Rice Production & Consumption
- Sugar Outlook
- Table: EGYPT Sugar Production & Consumption
- Table: EGYPT Sugar Production & Consumption
- Dairy Outlook
- Table: EGYPT Milk Production & Consumption
- Table: EGYPT Cheese Production & Consumption
- Table: EGYPT Butter Production & Consumption
- Table: EGYPT Milk Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: EGYPT Cheese Production & Consumption
- Table: EGYPT Butter Production & Consumption
- Cotton Outlook
- Table: EGYPT Cotton Production & Consumption
- Table: EGYPT Cotton Production & Consumption
- Livestock Outlook
- Table: EGYPT Poultry Production & Consumption
- Table: EGYPT Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
- Table: EGYPT Poultry Production & Consumption
- Table: EGYPT Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
- Grains Outlook
- Table: EGYPT Wheat Production & Consumption
- Table: EGYPT Corn Production & Consumption
- Table: GASC Tenders between November 2012 and March 2013
- Table: EGYPT Wheat Production & Consumption
- Table: EGYPT Corn Production & Consumption
Commodities Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
- Monthly Grains Update
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
Upstream Analysis
- Africa GM Outlook
- Africa Machinery Outlook
- Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Chocolate Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
-

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=552297&dt=t

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.


Author:
Bill Thompson
e-mail
Web: www.fastmr.com
Phone: 18008448156

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