2012-09-03 14:17:13 - New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Egypt Oil & Gas Report Q3 2012"

BMI View: The advent of further political strife, relating to the presidential standoff between the military backed candidate Ahmad Shafiq and his Muslim Brotherhood opponent Mohammed Morsi, has undermined policy coherence as it relates to the country's most significant economic sector. Now that Morsi has been confirmed as president, one thing is clear; when it comes to Egypt's gas sector, domestic needs are going to take priority over exports, as the decision to end gas supplies to Israel confirms. This will inevitably affect the pricing climate for international oil companies operating in Egypt's gas sector, potentially making it more of a struggle to secure internationally competitive rates when selling gas.

We highlight these trends and developments in Egypt's oil and gas

sector:

* BMI expects Egyptian oil production to decline from 637,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to 578,500b/d in 2021. Consumption is expected to rise significantly, from 814,000b/d to 1.09mn b/d in the same period, quadrupling Egypt's oil import bill in the coming years.
* We do not see any proposed refineries advancing over the forecast period, and with refining capacity remaining flat, imports of refined products are set to rise from 83,000b/d in 2011 to over 370,000b/d by 2021.
* Although gas production is expected to grow from 64.4bn cubic metres (bcm) to 86.5bcm in the 2012-2021 period, consumption will also rise significantly, from 47.6bcm to 70.3bcm. Gas exports (LNG) will rise modestly in the period up to 2015, but then gradually fall to below 14bcm by the end of the forecast period.
* The cessation of Egypt's gas sales agreement with Israel in April 2012 will end a significant slice of piped Egyptian exports, though flows to Jordan (the main Arab Gas Pipeline customer) will likely persist, but at lower levels than in pre-2011 times.
* Much is anticipated from the newly elected (since late Q212) President Mohammed Morsi. EGPC and the other state companies will continue to push their own licensing rounds, hoping that the political challenges will not ensnare investment in upstream hydrocarbons projects.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/451254_egypt_oil_gas_report_q3_2012.aspx


Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Egypt Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
- Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 ('000 b/d)
- Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 ('000 b/d)
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Egypt Energy Market Overview
- Table: Egypt - Upstream Projects
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Egypt - Oil & Gas Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Table: Egypt - Oil & Gas Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
- Oil and Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- LNG
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Egypt
- Service Stations
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- Oil Pipelines
- LNG Terminals
- Table: LNG Terminals In Egypt
- Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings
- Table: Downstream Risk / Reward Ratings
- Egypt Upstream Rating - Overview
- Egypt Upstream Rating - Rewards
- Egypt Upstream Rating - Risks
- Egypt Downstream Rating - Overview
Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players - Egyptian Energy Sector
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- Licensing Rounds
- International Energy Relations
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
- Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC)
- BP Egypt
- Eni Egypt
- Shell Egypt
- BG Egypt
- Apache Energy
- Dana Gas
- Edison
- RWE Dea
- Melrose Resources - Summary
- Lukoil - Summary
- ExxonMobil - Summary
- Chevron - Summary
- GDF Suez - Summary
- Reliance Industries - Summary
- Enel - Summary
Africa - Regional Appendix
- Table: Oil Consumption Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Production Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
- Table: Refining Capacity Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
- Table: Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
- Table: Gas Consumption Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
- Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
- Table: Gas Production Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
- Table: Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
- LNG Net Exports Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
- LNG Net Exports Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
- Table: Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Ratings Overview
- Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure
- Indicators
- Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology
- Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Energy Industry
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=451254&dt=t

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